If Tarik Skubal were to leave the Detroit Tigers, you might be surprised to learn that the top contender for his services could be the Los Angeles Dodgers.
That’s right. The Dodgers, two-time World Series champions, currently lead a prediction market called Calci, with a 30% chance of being Skubal’s next team, well ahead of his current team, the Tigers, who sit at 20%.
It’s worth noting that this market’s resolution date is set for March 25, 2027, meaning it will include the offseason if Skubal isn’t traded by the deadline.
This market is still in its early stages, showing a trading volume of about $85,000 as of July 22. Consequently, the odds can shift significantly as more money comes into play.
Interestingly, another market suggests there’s a 55% chance Skubal gets traded. Yet, as of Monday, those odds seemed to drop to 31.7%, with $66,256 in trading activity on that front.
Looking ahead, Calci speculators predict that Skubal—who has been a two-time Cy Young Award winner—will likely be dealt by the trade deadline on August 3 at 6 p.m. ET. In a yes/no format for trades, Skubal has a 56% chance of being moved, placing him second for likely trades, right after San Francisco Giants’ second baseman Luis Arraez, who boasts an impressive 92% likelihood of leaving.
On a related note, Jon Heyman from the Post has pointed out that while it seems unlikely the Tigers would release Skubal before the deadline, they probably can’t keep him past this season either.
As it stands, Detroit is trying to stay relevant in the playoff race. Even though they’re 6.5 games behind the Chicago White Sox and the Cleveland Guardians, it doesn’t seem impossible for them to close that gap, especially since the Tigers were expected to perform well at the season’s start.
Currently, they’re five games behind the Boston Red Sox for the last wild card spot in the American League.
If the Tigers manage to narrow the distance before the deadline, Skubal’s chances of remaining with the team could improve. Conversely, if Detroit falls further behind, that situation could change drastically.
In past seasons, you might have imagined the Yankees pursuing a player like Skubal. However, the current market suggests that Brian Cashman might not be in the running for the left-hander.
The Yankees’ odds sit at 8%, trailing other teams like the Atlanta Braves (14%), Milwaukee Brewers (14%), and Tampa Bay Rays (13%), among others.
With an already stacked rotation featuring Max Fried, Cam Schlitler, Gerrit Cole, and Carlos Rodon, the Yankees appear to be looking into different options.
Tarik Skubal Next Team Odds
| Team | Odds |
|---|---|
| Los Angeles Dodgers | 30% |
| Detroit Tigers | 20% |
| Milwaukee Brewers | 14% |
| Atlanta Braves | 14% |
| Tampa Bay Rays | 13% |
| Philadelphia Phillies | 12% |
| Chicago White Sox | 12% |
| Houston Astros | 10% |
| San Diego Padres | 10% |
| Chicago Cubs | 10% |
| New York Yankees | 8% |
Data via Kalchi, as of July 22.
