Tennessee Special Election Shows Tight Race

A new poll released on Wednesday indicates a competitive special House election in Tennessee, a state that President Trump previously won by a significant margin of 22 percentage points.

In the 7th Congressional District, Republican Matt Van Epps is leading Democrat Aftin Behn—who has been dubbed “Tennessee’s AOC”—by a slender margin of 2 percentage points (48% to 46%), according to a survey conducted by Emerson College Polling and The Hill. About 5% of respondents are “undecided,” while 2% lean towards one of the three third-party candidates on the ballot.

Van Epps, formerly the secretary of the Tennessee Department of General Services, maintained that 2-point lead (49% to 47%) when undecided voters hinted at their preferences.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling, noted that the outcome of Tennessee’s 7th District special election will largely hinge on voter motivation on Election Day. Interestingly, 56% of respondents indicated they would favor early voting for Behn, while 51% of those for Van Epps planned to cast their votes on the actual day. Among younger voters—those under 40—Behn has strong support, receiving 64% compared to the increasing backing of Van Epps as age rises, peaking at 61% among voters aged 70 and older.

There’s also a noticeable gender gap: men favor Van Epps by 9 points (51% to 42%), while women support Behn by a narrower 6-point margin (50% to 44%), according to Kimball.

The poll reveals that President Trump’s approval rating remains quite tight in these strongly Republican areas, with 47% approving of his presidency and 49% disapproving. The decline appears to be driven by independents; 59% disapprove of Trump while only 34% approve.

An unexpected win for Behn could shrink the Republican majority in the House to just three seats, pointing to potential upheaval within the party following disappointing results in recent off-year elections in New Jersey and Virginia.

At just 36, Behn previously won a spot in the Tennessee House of Representatives during a special election in 2023, but some of her past remarks are now drawing renewed attention.

In a resurfaced 2020 podcast, she expressed disdain for Nashville, saying, “I hate this city, I hate bachelors, I hate pedal bars, I hate country music, I hate everything that makes Nashville so obviously an ‘it’ city to the rest of the country.” That’s rather striking, isn’t it?

In a 2019 op-ed for The Tennessean, she labeled Tennessee a “racist state,” and noted her desire to disband the Nashville Police Department during the turbulent summer of 2020. She even praised the “54% of Americans who believe burning police stations is justified.”

The winner of this special election on December 2 will succeed former House Homeland Security Chairman Mark Green, who left his position earlier this year for a private sector role.

The poll sampled 600 early and potential voters in the 7th District between November 22 and 24, carrying a margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.