Texas Republican Senate Primary Tightens

The Texas Republican Senate primary is proving to be a nail-biter. A recent poll reveals that incumbent John Cornyn, U.S. Representative Wesley Hunt, and former state Attorney General Ken Paxton are all closely stacked, with just 1.5 points separating them.

According to JL Partners, support among likely voters stands at 27.0% for Paxton, 25.7% for Hunt, and 25.5% for Cornyn. Surprisingly, 21.7% of those surveyed are undecided.

This indicates a noticeable shift since two months ago, when Paxton led at 29% while both Hunt and Cornyn lingered near 24% each.

“This poll is one of the few unbiased results amid a sea of surveys,” remarked James Johnson, co-founder of JL Partners.

He noted, “Ken Paxton still has a shot. Even though his lead is down to just one point, a three-way tie could still work in his favor.”

Former President Trump hasn’t weighed in on this competitive race, which had seemed more like a two-horse race until Hunt entered the ring in October. As Paxton’s lead over Cornyn has dwindled, speculations grow about the dynamics of the contest.

If either Cornyn or Paxton withdraws before the March 3 primary, analysts predict Hunt could trend upward.

In direct matchups, Hunt leads Paxton 44% to 34%, while he also bests Cornyn 44% to 33%.

Interestingly, Hunt’s appeal is rising; he boasts a net favorability rating of 42%, outshining Paxton’s 27% and Cornyn’s 14%.

If Hunt were to drop out, however, Paxton might narrowly edge out Cornyn with a 41% to 40% lead.

Hunt has represented a Houston-area House district since 2023, and his recent name recognition boost seems favorable, with 57% of those recalling media about him expressing improved views.

On the other hand, Cornyn appears to be lagging—self-identified “MAGA Republicans” see him as the least favored candidate. Only 24% of those who recently encountered information about him reported a positive view.

Similarly, Paxton didn’t fare much better; just 28% of respondents felt more favorable after hearing recent news about him.

Back in May 2023, the Texas House impeached Paxton over allegations related to a donor’s lawsuit, which included connections to his purported mistress.

Despite being acquitted by the Texas Senate on 16 impeachment articles linked to the scandal, Paxton’s personal life has also seen turbulence—his wife, state Senator Angela Paxton, filed for divorce in July.

Interestingly, Cornyn, a former Texas Supreme Court justice, has been perceived poorly by “MAGA Republicans,” currently holding a meager approval rating of 4 percentage points.

His bipartisan work on infrastructure and gun control under President Biden hasn’t seemed to resonate well with certain voter segments.

Conversely, Hunt enjoys a robust online approval rating of 54 points among MAGA voters, trailing only slightly behind Paxton, who stands at 52 points.

Johnson added, “Both Cornyn and Hunt are gaining ground, but Hunt seems to be the one with the most upward movement. He’s highly favorable and outperforms Paxton in matchups—Cornyn, not so much.”

However, Hunt has drawn some frustration from colleagues in Washington for missing several key votes despite his strong approval. Recently, House Republican leaders had to pause a vote awaiting his return to address a Democratic-supported resolution regarding military actions in Venezuela.

The poll, which surveyed 600 likely voters for the Texas Senate Republican primary between January 31 and February 2, has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.