Texas Senate Race Could Swing for Democrats
It’s been almost four decades since a Democrat claimed victory in a U.S. Senate election in Texas, a state known for its Republican leanings.
Yet, recent polls indicate that this year might be different. In a survey conducted by The New York Times and Siena, Democratic candidate James Talarico and Republican incumbent Ken Paxton both enjoyed 47% support among likely voters in the Lone Star State.
Paxton recently won a primary runoff against seasoned Republican Sen. John Cornyn, buoyed by endorsements from notable figures like Donald Trump. Now, he’ll face Talarico, who is gaining traction within the Democratic Party, in an election that could influence the balance of the Senate.
However, things aren’t looking too good for Paxton. He’s faced numerous scandals and legal challenges over recent years. Most notably, in 2023, he was impeached by the Texas House of Representatives, only to be acquitted by the state Senate later on. Compounding his troubles is an ongoing divorce from his wife, Angela, a state senator, citing undisclosed “recent discoveries” as the basis for their separation.
Polls reveal that less than 40% of participants believe Paxton possesses good character or moral values. Half of the respondents deemed his comments—especially those aimed at overturning President Trump’s 2020 election loss—as too extreme.
Interestingly, his approval rating of 47% falls below the 50% of voters who prefer Republicans maintaining control of the Senate next year.
On the other hand, Talarico seems to have the upper hand. He’s garnering 61% support among Hispanic voters, a notable shift given that Trump won a significant portion of this demographic in the last presidential election. Additionally, he also leads Paxton by 27 points among independents.
The survey points to a substantial gender gap as well. Talarico enjoys an 18-point lead among female voters, while Paxton has a 18-point advantage with male voters.
Once a middle school teacher and now a 37-year-old Presbyterian seminarian, Talarico recently defeated Rep. Jasmine Crockett, a strong progressive figure, in the Democratic primary. He has proven to be a formidable fundraiser, pulling in $27 million within the first quarter of this year.
However, Republicans are aiming to undercut Talarico’s momentum by spotlighting his previous controversial statements, such as claims about gender identity.
In a recent speech, Paxton took shots at Talarico, using nicknames like “Tofu Talarico” and “Jimmy with six genders,” while asserting that Talarico doesn’t belong in Texas and should be in California instead.
Interestingly, a majority of respondents think the Democratic Party might be straying too far left for their liking, which could pose challenges for Talarico.
In the midst of all this, economic concerns seem to be fueling Talarico’s campaign, particularly as 60% of respondents expressed discontent with how Trump is addressing the rising cost of living. Talarico himself pointed out in an ad that many Texans feel “drowning” due to financial pressures, hoping to resonate with voters’ everyday struggles.
