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The 12-day Israel-Iran conflict’s potential to reshape the Middle East

The 12-day Israel-Iran conflict's potential to reshape the Middle East

“12 Days of War” might signal the end of Israel’s longest conflict with Iran, a situation initiated by President Trump. But I suppose true victory isn’t just about destruction.

For the first time in years, Iran’s grip on the Middle East has loosened. Networks supporting Iran—like Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis, Iraqi militias, and Assad’s Syria—are weakened. Joint efforts between Israel and the US have pushed back on Iran’s nuclear ambitions.

As some prominent Israeli Arab influencers noted, this is “the quietest celebration in the world.” Even if it can’t be shouted from the rooftops, it’s safer for hundreds of millions.

Now, President Trump is trying to build on this progress with new initiatives aimed at ending the Gaza conflict and forming agreements with Syria, Saudi Arabia, and others.

But here’s the catch: Arab public opinion is shifting the opposite way. Support for normalization with Israel has dropped, with fewer than 13% backing it in several Arab nations. In Morocco, for instance, it plummeted from 31% in 2022 to 13% following the October 7 attacks. If we can’t achieve peace, military victories lose their significance.

Why is there this disconnect? It seems normalization efforts feel too elite and top-heavy. For Israel and its neighbors to achieve lasting peace, they need to build on more than just shared threats. There should be mutual benefits and shared aspirations. The current moment calls for a fundamental shift from merely managing conflicts to actively fostering peace.

The Abraham Accords kicked off this journey by establishing formal ties between governments. Yet, connections among civilians—like students, teachers, and entrepreneurs—aren’t progressing at the same rate.

Critics argue that past Israeli-Palestinian dialogues failed due to a lack of political support. But perhaps this moment could be different. The Abraham Accords might offer the political stability needed for these initiatives to work.

True normalization rests on three foundations: security, economic cooperation, and, most crucially, human connections. The first two have made some progress since October 7, but the third—creating bonds among people—suffered due to the recent violence. It’s during turbulent times that we need to recognize our shared humanity instead of seeing each other as adversaries.

Let’s consider what we could accomplish. Imagine a summer program where students from Israel, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and the US collaborate to address challenges like water shortages and renewable energy. Or how about school trips that transcend borders, fostering connections among teenagers? Educators could work together to combat anti-Semitism and Islamophobia.

These ideas may not seem easy, but they’re essential for strategic growth.

Before the Gaza conflict, there were signs of potential. Countries like Saudi Arabia and Egypt began to remove anti-Semitic content from textbooks. The UAE has started to include Holocaust education in its curriculum. Israeli youth even took part in delegations to Morocco, showing that education can transform when there’s political commitment.

The US needs to guide this initiative but in a transformative way. It should shift from merely overseeing peace to actively building it. Community education deserves as much investment as defense. If the next generation only sees each other as threats, we shouldn’t be surprised when peace remains elusive.

Once the conflict concludes, Israel will need to address its internal fractures—bridging social divides and restoring trust in institutions. The solution won’t be isolation but rather extending a hand to “all neighboring states and their people.”

Prince Mohammed bin Salman has envisioned the Middle East as a “new Europe,” where not only cities were rebuilt after WWII, but so were relationships and identities.

Efforts like Erasmus, a program facilitating student exchanges in the EU, created a generation of Europeans who saw themselves as part of a greater whole than their individual nations. This poses a significant challenge for the new Middle East today.

While there are discussions about “denazifying” Gaza, it’s important to remember that post-war Germany succeeded in creating a strong democratic foundation through education and civic involvement. The Middle East needs similar efforts to overcome dehumanization; it’s not just about what comes after in Gaza, but for the entire region.

The opportunity for transformation won’t last indefinitely. Iranian influence is waning, and many Arab nations are starting to see the advantages of cooperating with Israel on technology and security. However, these opportunities can quickly vanish.

Achieving success means moving beyond conventional conflicts and brief cycles of unrest. It involves investing in education, jobs, and economic integration. Sustainable peace will require not just governmental agreements but also widespread public support.

Otherwise, we risk returning to past patterns. Iran might rebuild its proxy networks, new extremist groups could arise, and the cycle of violence could endure.

The next generation deserves better than to inherit tales of conflict; they should inherit the possibility for a brighter future. This vision of the Middle East should encompass not only pipelines and defense treaties but also shared classrooms, labs, and mutual dreams.

Let’s make this the last war of the old Middle East and embark on a path toward a new era.

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