The 49ers don’t feel scary anymore, and the tape proves it

Do you remember the bands you grew up with that were always good and played quality music, but as everyone gets older and life changes, the music just doesn't sound the same anymore? ?

That is san francisco 49ers Something like that.

In a year filled with injuries and malfunctions, overall performance was poor. feeling San Francisco, like the team that makes our faces melt when we hear it, is on the brink of missing the playoffs this season. On Sunday, the Niners faced a cold reality, losing at home to the Niners 20-17. seattle seahawksIt was the first loss to Seattle since 2021. The loss dropped the team to 5-5, but losses to the Rams and Cardinals dropped them to last place in the division in a year when they should have been back on top. A look at the conference.

Let's go inside and see why this team isn't the same 49ers team we know.

The crime was… strange.

If you count the stats, the Niners offense is one of the best teams in the sport. They are second in yards per game, tied for eighth in points per game, fifth in EPA/play, and sixth in completion percentage. However, no crime was committed I felt it It's now easily available. When you watch Kyle Shanahan's offense in San Francisco, they usually play with the assumption that they can generate easy offense with the run game and yards after the catch. The combination of Shanahan's scheme and the Monsters (WRs Debo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk, TE George Kittle, RB Christian McCaffrey, FB Kyle Juszczyk) made it impossible to protect them. A checkdown can turn into an 8-yard gain, and an 8-yard gain can turn into a touchdown.

Well, YAC hasn't had exactly the same results this season. According to Pro Football Reference, the Niners are 24th in total yards after the catch and 25th in YAC/Yards Completions this season, well below their first place in the NFL in the same metrics in 2023. Dynamic ability on every checkdown is a threat, but San Francisco has lost some of that this season, shrinking the team's margin of error.

This difference is especially close in the red zone, where the Niners completely collapsed. This season, San Francisco is 15th in EPA per play in the red zone and 14th in success rate, but in 2023, San Francisco ranks 5th in EPA per play and 14th in success rate in the red zone. It has decreased significantly from the previous position. Kittle did not play in the loss to Seattle, McCaffrey is still working his way back to 100%, Aiyuk missed the season with a torn ACL, and Samuel had periods of injury and illness that sidelined him). It felt like the offense wasn't able to press as many easy buttons as before.

Take this play against Seattle as an example. San Francisco is a good distance from the end zone, but you usually expect McCaffrey to make someone miss and gain 5 or more yards. He runs option routes and goes into space, but once he gets there, no one misses him.

Compare this to 2023. McCaffrey is once again going the option route and has some outside influence that he is able to turn into a big positive gain. I'm not saying McCaffrey has lost a step, but the margins are a little tighter this season because the team as a whole hasn't been able to make big hits on after-the-catch plays.

Also, I don't think they're able to win coverage from men as much as they used to. Last season, they significantly cut short the little man coverages they faced, posting a total EPA of 63.44 and a positive play rate of 56.9% against man coverage (per Sports Information Solutions). While they are still in the top 10 among NFL teams this season, they are not as strong. Through 10 games, they have already recorded 100 pass attempts against man coverage (106 of those were in 2023).total), the total EPA was 8.35 and the success rate was only 45.7%. Again, not numbers to turn your nose up at, but definitely not what we expect from this core player.

Here they miss Aiyuk and long for McCaffrey to return to his old self. They were able to shred man coverage. That meant putting McCaffrey in an isolated linebacker situation, otherwise it meant Aiyuk would shred on the outside. Last year, Aiyuk posted an impressive EPA of 1.01 man coverage per target, ranking third in the entire NFL in that metric. He was second only to George Kittle, who posted an absurd 1.11 EPA per target against humans on 22 targets. Their best receiver against man this year is WR Ja'Wuan Jennings, who at 0.69 isn't bad, but he's struggled even more this season. Some catches have been made, but there are far fewer outbursts from this team.

Now let's talk QB. Listen, I'm not going to have a discussion about Brock Purdy in 2024. There is no point in continuing to talk about him in the same circles that have been talking about him for the past two years. What I'm saying is that he's gotten better at scrambling this year and has been able to reduce some of his margin of error this season, but he can't overcome that small margin on his own. Not every QB is Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, so Purdy needs a little help.

There's been a lot of talk about the Niners not changing protections or allowing Purdy to make audible calls, but I don't think that's true. Purdy has as much freedom as most QBs in the NFL when it comes to “making” plays (going from one play call to another). The bigger problem here is that the offensive line is not up to par. Trent Williams remains strong and rookie Dominik Puni is a promising right guard, but there are big holes elsewhere. Staying away from a poor offensive line for so long can only be done by design, and it feels like the Niners offense is struggling to make decent plays in key areas.

The defensive brain drain has finally begun.

Over the years, the San Francisco 49ers have been able to rebuild their defense after losing coordinators and quality players to injury or free agency. The situation was not the same this year. Their defense has experienced major disruption and a “brain drain” on the defensive side of the ball, finally taking a toll on the unit's success. They currently rank 12th in defensive EPA per play allowed and 17th in completion percentage allowed, both of which are significant steps back from the situation we're used to seeing at or near the top of the league. I'm doing it. With constant upheaval at the coordinator position, from Robert Saleh to DeMeko Ryans to Steve Wilkes to now Nick Sorensen and Brandon Staley building up the defense, this well-coached unit has been We became a team that made a little more mistakes than we are used to. I'm watching.

On top of that, their ability to rebuild and reload their defense also took a bit of a hit. Here's their 2023 roster and how many snaps they played for the team in 2024, according to ESPN's Bill Barnwell. The trend of always losing players has to have an impact at some point, and that appears to be happening with the Niners.

The big problem is that he can't take pressure from anyone other than Nick Bosa. When Bosa is on the field, the Niners' pressure rate is 35.4%, which is tied with the Niners. minnesota vikings 10th overall in the league. Without Bosa, that drops to 28%; arizona cardinals and jacksonville jaguarswhich are 29th and 30th in the league, respectively.

The motley lineup of Leonard Floyd, Yetur Gross-Matos and Robert Beal isn't consistent enough to provide consistent pop next to Bosa, which hurts their defense. They also simply aren't good enough for this year's run. This is more of a team building issue than anything else. They fell even further last year, ranking 22nd in rushing success rate and 20th in EPA/rushing allowance rate, and have dropped significantly from second place in both categories in 2021. They've struggled to find a true nose tackle since DJ Jones went free. (Although rookie DT Evan Anderson is contributing in that area), they don't have as much ability to overcome it this season as a consistent brain drain has begun. The Niners' offense feels like it's been snakebitten by injuries, while their defense feels like a team-building flaw.

Now, I'm not going to be the one to ruin and depress the Niners. It's hard to say that a team with Kyle Shanahan as the head play caller and a talented offensive line will slump by the end of this season. However, they have games on the road against Green Bay, Arizona, Buffalo and Miami, and a home matchup against Detroit. Los Angeles Rams To finish the season. If they're going to make the playoffs, they'll need to overcome a murderous line of opponents to close out this season.

It's not all doom and gloom, but it feels like this is the last ride for this version of the Niners. If so, it would be more of a sad swan song than a grand finale.