Sixty-three years after the original, another Cuban Missile Crisis is evolving. Team Trump is ramping up a significant military presence in the Caribbean.
More than 10 percent of the U.S. Navy fleet is currently in the region or en route. This includes the USS Gerald Ford Strike Group and the USS Gravely guided-missile destroyer. The scale of this deployment is comparable to earlier troop placements aimed at safeguarding Israel from Iranian threats.
This is a maximum accumulation, as in, activities in the area have been restricted since President John F. Kennedy imposed a blockade on Cuba in response to Soviet nuclear installations there.
At this point, the Trump administration is framing this as a response to domestic drug cartels, especially those from Venezuela. The Torren de Aragua group is involved in smuggling drugs into the U.S. But, honestly, the motives are broader.
During his initial term, Trump launched a maximum pressure strategy after Nicolas Maduro claimed victory in an election that opposition parties argued was rigged. Washington has yet to recognize Maduro’s re-election.
Instead, Trump and 50 other nations endorsed Juan Guaido as the legitimate president of Venezuela in early 2019. This stance led to Maduro severing diplomatic ties with the U.S.
Maduro’s predecessor, Hugo Chávez, had already begun fostering relations with Moscow, Beijing, and Tehran back in 2005. The complete rupture with the U.S. is now a reality.
Chávez and then Maduro became key players in a modern South American axis of evil. Russian President Vladimir Putin collaborated with Chávez, selling fighter jets and helicopters to Venezuela starting around 2006.
By late 2009, Chávez had secured a sizable credit line from Russia for various military hardware. Putin’s concerns about NATO arms support to Ukraine trace back to these earlier dealings—Venezuela’s weapons were meant to counter U.S. influence in Colombia.
Chávez also developed a strong economic alliance with China, labeling it a protective barrier against U.S. dominance. His administration openly condemned U.S. President George W. Bush, placing Venezuela alongside Iran, Syria, and North Korea as part of the “axis of evil.”
China’s purchase of Venezuelan oil has proved vital for Maduro, allowing him to circumvent U.S. sanctions while giving China additional oil imports.
Fast forward to March 2022: Putin is invading Ukraine, while Iranian leaders finalize strategies with groups like Hamas and Hezbollah. Meanwhile, North Korea is conducting unprecedented missile tests.
Biden’s administration, hoping for a diplomatic rapprochement with Maduro, shifted away from the maximum pressure strategy, aiming to mitigate rising global oil prices. But predictably, Maduro capitalized on this approach.
Despite some relaxation in U.S. energy restrictions, Maduro continued to bar serious opposition candidates from running, even threatening military action in Guyana over oil-rich regions.
Critics argue that Biden’s earlier policies effectively strengthened Maduro. Ironically, it’s now Brazil’s leftist government that’s reining in Caracas and limiting its ambitions.
Now, with Trump’s maximum pressure tactics revived, the Pentagon is showcasing strength aimed not just at Maduro, but at Moscow and Beijing, echoing elements of the Monroe Doctrine.
The White House’s message is clear: Stay out of the Western Hemisphere. Trump initially conveyed this to Putin and Xi by maintaining military presence in key areas.
So far, neither Putin nor Xi seem ready to heed this warning. Recently, a Russian cargo plane connected to groups involved with military operations made its way to Caracas, further complicating the situation.
The flight took an unusual path through several countries, sending a stark message. It seems Putin is willing to escalate the geopolitical struggle into the Americas.
And in light of Trump’s growing impact in the Caribbean, a spokesperson for Beijing expressed opposition to any disruptions of sovereignty in Venezuela, maintaining a tone that some might find disingenuous.
Yet many hope that China will indeed respect territorial waters elsewhere, particularly in relation to Taiwan.
Despite the challenges on the horizon, there is room for Team Trump to assert victory in this scenario. Both Putin and Xi are grappling with how to effectively counter U.S. actions, and Maduro might ultimately falter in the process. I mean, some might say World War III is upon us. Yet, it seems the U.S. could be poised to come out on top.
