Signed by Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania agreement In January, a joint Baltic defense line will be established in preparation for a future Russian attack. Last week, Lithuania announced Russia had deployed land mines and anti-tank obstacles such as metal “hedgehogs” and concrete “dragon teeth” on bridges connecting the two countries. Kaliningrad enclave. Lithuania We are planning further expansion. Installation of counter mobility equipment across the country, including at three airports.
Leaders of the region believe that Russia The economy is in war mode And because the sanctions regime against it is clearly inadequate, the military rosy predictions Some US intelligence sources were promoted in early 2023. According to recent Estonian intelligence estimates, Russia believes that to the station Move 40,000 troops closer to the border as quickly as possible.
President Putin's strengthening of the war machine, along with his clear desire for further territorial conquest, has convinced NATO countries that have had the misfortune of colliding with Russia to run out of time.
Geographical realities of the Baltic states. The only land connection to the rest of NATO is a 65-mile sea route. Suwalki Gap This location on the Lithuanian-Polish border is believed by many to be a logical place for Putin to attack if he decides to invade a NATO member state.
Although the risks should not be underestimated, such an intrusion would be difficult. Most of the Baltic states' borders with Russia and vassal Belarus are made up of swamps, marshes, lakes, rivers, and deep forests, which are sure to hinder Belarusian and Russian advances.
Furthermore, the security of the Baltic states has improved with the entry of Finland and Sweden into NATO. Defending and fortifying the Baltic States in the event of a future war will be much easier than it was just a few years ago.
The continued construction of the Baltic states' defense line is the next iteration of enhanced border security. This reflects the stark realization that allowing Russia to occupy your territory and people will come at great human and physical cost. Backtracking to buy time is no longer a viable option. The more you can stop the East Russian army, the better.
Baltic states are upgrading border infrastructure Long before Putin's second invasion of Ukraine. New fences, razor wire, cameras and sensors have been installed along the border since 2017 due to persistent smuggling concerns and a hybrid warfare strategy using migrants by Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko.
The Baltic Sea Defense Line would strengthen these efforts and help delay future ground attacks by Russian and Belarusian forces. In practice, this means piling up obstacles, reinforcing existing fences, digging trenches, and building defensive bunkers.
By investing in defense, Lithuania hopes to convince Putin that the country doesn't just have sharp teeth, it can also breathe fire. Last month, Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda he said he believed The country will aim to further increase defense spending beyond the current 3% of GDP.
Estonia as well went wild Spending increased by 3.43% in NATO and 3.15% in Latvia, making it the second and fourth highest total defense expenditure per GDP in NATO.
The Baltic allies are using this money to invest in expensive but very important areas. deep strike abilitywhich has proven to be highly effective in the ongoing war in Ukraine. For example, in a future conflict, St. Petersburg would be well within range of ATACMS guided missiles launched from Estonian territory. The Baltic states hope to factor this into the Kremlin's thinking and make the cost of an attack prohibitive.
For the Baltic states, survival means, most importantly, deterring Russian aggression through NATO. If deterrence fails in the worst-case scenario, all that is needed is to survive long enough to inflict significant damage on Russia while driving out the invaders with the help of allied reinforcements. In July, an Estonian military official said: he believed They will be able to hold out for two weeks, waiting for reinforcements from NATO allies.
The Baltic Sea Defense Line is intended to serve a dual purpose. In peacetime, it would strengthen NATO's deterrent capabilities, and in wartime, it would limit the mobility and speed of advancing Russian ground forces in order to withstand alliance reinforcements longer.
Unlike a decade ago, NATO allies now have their boots on the ground in the Baltic region. Germany is expanding its permanent presence in Lithuania. brigade of 4,800 troops A multinational battalion in Latvia, led by Canada, is also being upgraded to a brigade. “Permanently deployed” Not something permanent, but something fundamental. Britain has a brigade high preparation It is expected to be quickly deployed back home to augment the reinforced frontline garrison battalion based in Estonia.
The Baltic states recognize that Putin and his ilk are unlikely to abandon their imperialist vision. Therefore, these small countries are calmly but persistently taking steps to strengthen their deterrence. Russia may just lose his appetite if the main dish is almost indigestible.
Daniel Kocsis is a senior fellow at the Hudson Institute's Europe and Eurasia Center.
