How many gifts can one team receive?
The Yankees could not have imagined a better path to winning their first pennant since 2009.
First, the Orioles, and especially the Astros, were eliminated in the wild card round, leaving only the Central Division teams in the American League.
The Tigers and Guardians then won five games, forcing Cleveland to overtax its bullpen while eliminating Cy Young Award favorite Tarik Skubal.
Even if Detroit had won, the ace wouldn't have been able to start until Game 3 and, if necessary, Game 7, but he's the kind of left-hander who dominated the Yankees this year. , could have given the Tigers a path to success. Two of the four wins needed.
In return, the Yankees will acquire the Guardians. Including the four-game loss to the Royals in the Division Series, the Yankees are 27-8 in AL Central vs. AL Central Division games this year, outscoring the conference 179-103. No team has had a better record than the Yankees vs. American League in regional competition this year. center.
The Yanks and Guardians have met six times in the playoffs. The Yankees have won the last three games. It started with the 2017 upset of defending American League champion and No. 1 seed Cleveland. This was also the beginning of a period in which the Yankees eliminated teams from the Central Division of the American League in the playoffs six consecutive times.
The Yankees defeated the Guardians in two of three games in each of the two series this year. Cleveland scored just 22 points in six games, nine of which came in overtime by the Ghost Runners, and both of the Guardians' wins came in those situations.
Can Cleveland win? Sure, the playoffs are fickle. The Guardians have talent, especially in relief. Here's a breakdown of what the Yankees can expect.
pen
One scout saw Steven Vogt use a lot of key relievers early in the season, especially Scott Barlow, Emmanuel Clase, Hunter Gaddis, Tim Herlin, Nick Sandlin, and Cade Smith, and thought the rookie manager was making mistakes. I thought that I may have committed a crime. It would be expensive on the back end.
“I was so wrong,” Scout 1 said.
Barlow pitched in 63 games, but was fired on September 11th due to poor late-game performance. Sandlin appeared in 68 games and posted a 3.75 ERA, but was left off the Division Series roster.
There were 12 pitchers who appeared in at least 74 games in the majors this season, and four of them were Guardians: Clase, Gaddis, Herrin, and Smith. Herrin and Smith then played in all five games in the Division Series against the Tigers, while Clase and Gaddis played in four games.
It seems like an overworked group that should benefit the Yankees. There was a day off between Games 4 and 5, but Gaddis still threw 63 pitches, Smith threw 57 pitches and Klass threw 40 pitches in those two games.
Crace closed out the Division Series with a two-inning save on Saturday. The only time he pitched two innings this year was a shutout against the Yankees on August 20th.
“I don't think it's going to get any worse because they're tired,” Scout 1 said. “We've seen them pitch heavy loads all year, and they held their own. The theory against Cleveland was that it's better to take the lead against the opposing starters now. But I think because I don't want Penn to have the lead.”
The Big Four of Clase, Gaddis, Herrin, and Smith combined for 301 regular-season games, pitching 290 innings and posting a 1.49 ERA, 27.7 strikeout rate, and 6 percent walk rate.
“[The southpaw] Herrin will be used as a big left-handed hitter, and Vogt has indicated since the fourth inning that he intends to use Smith when the key setup moment comes,” Scout 1 said. “It is impossible to think unconsciously.” [Smith isn’t going to be used until late]”
Smith has one of the hardest fastballs to hit in the majors. Herrin and Smith have faced a total of 243 left-handed batters this year, including playoffs, and have yet to allow a home run.
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Clase had an MLB-high OPS of .282 (minimum 100 at-bats) allowed for a left-handed hitter this year, with Herrin second at .385 and Smith ninth at .453. As such, the Guardians have plenty of options for Juan Soto, Jazz Chisholm Jr., Alex Verdugo, and Austin Wells.
Clase allowed four earned runs in games 2 through 4 against the Tigers. That's one fewer earned run than he allowed in 74¹/₃ innings this season, when he had an overall ERA of 0.61. The only pitcher in the modern era (since 1900) to pitch 70 innings with a lower OPS than Crace's .392 was Eric Gagne's .374 in 2003.
“[Clase] Failed in the Division Series by throwing one too many sliders and one too good a slider to Kelly Carpenter. [who hit it for a three-run homer]” said Scout 2. “He throws a 160 mph cutter and a 91 mph slider and doesn't make many mistakes, so if he does make a mistake, [of his mistakes]you're probably missing the only thing you're going to get. ”
starter
Over the years, the Guardians' strength had produced a strong rotational arm. But in 2024, this will not be the case.
Shane Bieber started two games but required Tommy John surgery. Logan Allen and Gavin Williams, who had strong rookie campaigns in 2023, have regressed. Triston McKenzie, once seen as a future ace, struggled to make a successful comeback from an injury-hit season in 2023 (he started 16 games this year and had a 5.11 ERA). Carlos Carrasco was never able to recapture the magic of his first stint in Cleveland.
The only constant is Tanner Bibby (31 starts, 3.47 ERA), who relies heavily on his slider. Alex Cobb, who is scheduled to start Game 1 of the ALCS, has only started four times this year, including just three innings (two runs) in Game 3 of the ALDS, but according to Scout 2, “He still has a good fastball, he just hasn't thrown it a lot this year. Therefore, naturally, he had problems with command [against Detroit]” Soto had 7 hits for 11 at bats and two home runs against Cobb.
Matthew Boyd is a wild card. He had Tommy John surgery in June 2023 and didn't sign with Cleveland until June 2024, but while he has good stuff, his staying power is limited. But that's pretty much the case with the Guardians' entire rotation, with Vogt clearly preferring to be in the pen. Of the 44 innings against the Tigers, starting pitchers pitched just 18¹/₃ in five games.
The Guardians will likely need to bring in a fourth starter in this series, like Williams or Ben Lively, or play a bullpen game.
“The Yankees have to do some damage to their starting pitchers. It doesn't take a genius to figure that out,” Scout 1 said.
Scout 2: “They're going to have to put their game together. That's what they are this year.”
star
Jose Ramirez will likely finish in the top six for AL MVP for the sixth time in the Stealth Hall of Fame career. This season, he recorded 39 home runs and 41 stolen bases.
The switch hitter posted a 1.081 OPS against left-handed batters and a .797 OPS against right-handed batters, going 1-for-10 as a left-handed batter against Detroit.
“We can't afford to lose to Ramirez. He's clearly their best player,” Scout 1 said. “Ideally, you want to turn him into a left-handed hitter as much as possible and attack him in the bottom of the zone.”
The problem is Ramirez still has 25 home runs from the left side (12th in the majors) and has two games, maybe four games left, before he hits Yankee Stadium's short right-field porch.
Ramirez went 3-for-16 (.188 batting average) in the Division Series against Detroit, with one home run and three walks. Ramirez is batting .236 with three home runs and a .656 OPS in 37 postseason games.
“you know what [the Guardians] need? they need [Ramirez] To hit like his buddy [and former infield partner Francisco] Lindor,” Scout 2 said. “They need big at-bats like Lindor from him.”
supporting cast
Scout 1: “After Ramirez, the rest of the lineup will be fine.”
Consider that the Guardians only had nine walks in the Division Series, three of which were intentional for Ramirez. He was intentionally passed 12 times, the fourth-most in the regular season. However, the Yankees issued just eight tickets all year, the fourth-fewest.
First baseman Josh Naylor was a good co-star with Ramirez, hitting 31 home runs and 108 RBIs. He has two postseason home runs off Gerrit Cole, including a shot in Game 4 of the 2022 Division Series where he mocked the Yankees ace by mimicking walking through the bases while rocking a baby. is also included. His aggressiveness can also be used to his advantage, with zero walks in 58 at-bats during the postseason.
Leadoff man Stephen Kwan spent two different seasons, hitting .352 with a .920 OPS in the first half and .206/.618 in the second half. In the ensuing Division Series, Kwan went 11-for-21 (.524 batting average) while the rest of the Guardians went 28-146 (.192 batting average).
“I saw Kwan struggle when he was batting over .400, and I saw him get hot again,” Scout 1 said. “For me, you have to stay with him in the outer half, the outer third. His strength is close [inside] — He does damage there. ”
Lane Thomas, acquired from the Nationals at the trade deadline, had no home runs and an OPS of .443 in the first month, but in September he hit seven home runs and had an OPS of .855.
He then hit two home runs and nine RBIs out of the Guardians' 19 against the Tigers, especially hitting a grand slam off Skubal to give Cleveland the lead for good in a decisive Game 5.
other things
The Guardians are a strong defensive team, especially in center field with shortstop Brayan Rocchio and second baseman Andres Jimenez.
Kwan is also an excellent left fielder, with the high walls of Progressive Field's left field and down-the-line foul territory (as Detroit left fielder Riley Greene discovered in a key moment in Game 5). Limited. It is further emphasized that Alex Verdugo will play better defensively than the Yankees' Jasson Dominguez.
The Guardians have a similar offensive profile to the Royals. That means lower strikeout and walk totals and a willingness to be aggressive on the bases. In particular, I want you to pay attention to Ramirez, who is aiming for a triple. Ramirez has done it seven times in 2024. They will aim for a bunt even on a sacrifice fly or a hit. David Frye's safety squeeze was a key play in helping the Guardians avoid elimination in Game 4 of the ALDS.
Cleveland has left-handed Will Brennan and right-handed Joncy Noel in right field, plays left-handed Kyle Manzard at DH and right-handed fly and platoon, and is aggressive for platoon advantage during games. to play.
Vogt replaces the historic Terry Francona and is a potential AL Manager of the Year after leading the Guardians to the AL Central title and the No. 2 seed in his rookie year. There is enough. Scout 2 praised the team, saying, “The team plays like Vogt.'' [a former major league catcher] Yay – lots of passion and smarts. ”
