The Baseball Hall of Fame has used some form of “veterans committee” voting in its induction process dating back to 1939. The committee has taken various forms over the years, but its most recent procedures classify potential candidates into three groups. Contemporary era players (post-1980), contemporary era non-players, and classic era including players and non-players from before 1980. The committee is made up of 16 former players, executives, media and historians, and players must complete 12 qualifications. or more election votes.
This year's voting included eight former players, two of whom played in the pre-union Negro Leagues. Let's take a look at their cases and determine who should and could be announced as Hall of Famers on December 8th.
Dick Allen (1963-77), 1B/3B
58.7 WAR, .292/.378/.534, 156 OPS+, 1,848 H, 351 HR, 1,119 RBI, 1972 AL MVP
Allen had a few things going for him against the Hall of Fame lawsuit. He was seen as a crank by the media and did not have many collaborators among writers. He also performed at his best during a time when the offense was at its lowest since the 1910s. So his count looks low. His 1,848 hits are fewer than Vinny Castilla, and his 351 home runs are fewer than Carlos Lee.
But dig a little deeper and you'll find that Allen was an incredible slugger. He was a very patient hitter who showed speed early in his career and had great power. He twice led the league in home runs and was second in 1966 with 40.
Allen's combination of power, average, and on-base skills led him to lead the league in OPS four times. His massive career 156 OPS+ ranks 21st all-time among retired players, ahead of Willie Mays, Manny Ramirez, and Jeff Bagwell, to name a few.
Ken Boyer (1955-69), 3B
62.8 WAR, .287/.349/.462, 116 OPS+, 2,143 H, 282 HR, 1,141 RBI, 1964 National League MVP
During Boyer's peak seven years in St. Louis (1958-1964), he hit .303/.372/.500 with a season average of 6.4 WAR, 26 home runs, and 101 RBIs. He was a great fielder by all standards (as good as he is by modern metrics, winning five Gold Gloves between 1958-63) and was a great fielder for the pennant-winning Cardinals in 1964. He was the MVP.
By my count, Boyer is one of the top 15 third basemen of all time, and with Adrian Beltre taking over in 2024, all the other players I'd list before him are already in there.
John Donaldson (1908-40), P
Donaldson is a kind of mythical figure in the hard-to-track landscape of the first half of the 20th century. It is even more difficult to evaluate him since he only played briefly in the official Negro Leagues for five years, from 1920-24, with the Kansas City Monarchs. However, strangely, he barely pitched for the Monarchs, spending most of his time as a working outfielder.
That short tenure barely scratched the surface of Donaldson's career. He was a star player on various barnstorming teams throughout the 1910s, and there's no shortage of legends surrounding him during this time, including a 27-strikeout game and a 44-3 season. . After his five-year stint with the Monarchs, he continued pitching in the upper Midwest and Canada until his late 40s, sometimes as the team's only black player.
Much of it was brought against lay opposition, making Donaldson's case difficult to evaluate in the traditional sense. But he overcame all kinds of racial oppression to become the prototype for Satchel Page. In addition to being a legendary pitcher, he was also a great showman who could please the crowd (and increase his paycheck).
Steve Garvey (1969-87), 1B
38 WAR, .294/.329/.446, 117 OPS+, 2,599 H, 272 HR, 1,308 RBI, 1974 National League MVP
this is, 5th time Garvey was on the Veterans Affairs Committee ballot. It's probably time to give someone else a chance, but it's clear there are people in powerful positions who want Garvey in the Hall.
On the surface, it makes sense. Garvey was one of the leading figures of the 1970s. He was named to the All-Star team eight years in a row, won a Gold Glove Award four years in a row, won National League MVP in 1974, and was runner-up in 1978. He was an ironclad who played 1,207 consecutive games (still a National League record) and had at least 200 hits in six of his seven seasons from 1974 to 1980, two of which led the league in total. He recorded the number of hits. He was a two-time NLCS MVP and a postseason star who hit .338/.361/.550 in 55 playoff games.
However, according to modern statistics, Garvey's star status has diminished a bit. According to Baseball Reference, his WAR is just 38, lower than fellow first basemen Kent Fulbeck and Mark Grace. Defensive metrics make me doubt his Gold Glove award. And because Garvey didn't issue many walks and didn't hit with the type of power that star first basemen tend to have, his OPS isn't as good as the big stars at the position.
Dave Parker (1973-91), RF
40.1 WAR, .290/.339/.471, 121 OPS+, 2,712 H, 526 2B, 339 HR, 1,493 RBI, 1978 National League MVP
Parker of the Cobras had more hits than Billy Williams, Nellie Fox, and Ted Williams, more home runs than Hank Greenberg and George Brett, and more than Eddie Matthews and Jim Rice. He has recorded RBIs. He has a great climax. He finished in the top three MVP awards three times in four years from 1975 to 1978 (winning in 1978) and was outstanding in 10 games during the Pirates' success in the 1979 postseason. . Coming off his age-28 season, he looked like a Hall of Fame lock.
However, Parker became embroiled in drugs and the 1985 Pittsburgh drug trial, causing a major decline in his performance in the early 1980s, when he was still in his prime. He bounced back late in his career. The 34-year-old had a comeback season with the Reds in 1985, leading the league in doubles and home runs and finishing second in MVP voting, before posting solid numbers with the Athletics and Brewers.
But advanced metrics are unfriendly to Parker. He was a Gold Glove-worthy outfielder early in his career, but his defense was terrible in the '80s before switching to DH in 1988. He hated walks and had an OBP of just .322 from 1980 to 1991. He had a bWAR of 1 or less in nine of his 12 seasons.
He is a divisive case. He had great numbers and was talented enough to be in the Hall of Fame, but he wasted a lot of years in the middle of his career. However, it's clearly a Hall of Fame nickname.
Vic Harris (1922-47), OF/Manager
Harris was an extremely talented outfielder who spent much of his career as a player-manager for the Homestead Grays, serving as a player from 1935 to 1945 and as manager for 11 years from 1936 to 1948. The Grays won the Negro League World Series three times. He appeared in nine Negro National League pennants under Coach Harris and was selected as an All-Star six times as a player.
Harris' playing career alone isn't enough to get him in the Hall, but when combined with his work as the manager of the NNL's second-most successful franchise, there's a very strong case.
Tommy John (1963-89), SP
61.6 bWAR/79.4 fWAR, 288-231, 3.34 ERA (111 ERA+), 3.38 FIP, 2,245 K
John is best known for the medical procedure that bears his name, which he underwent in 1974 at the age of 31. He eventually played until he was 46 years old.
If you throw it this long, you'll accumulate a lot of numbers. His 288 wins are the most by a non-Hall of Famer since 1900. The argument against John is that he didn't have enough peaks. He finished in the top eight for the Cy Young Award four years in a row in the late 1970s, but never had a season with a bWAR higher than 5.6. FanGraphs is a little more positive about John. He was a pitcher with good control, throwing sinkers that induced a lot of weak contact and limited his home runs. His career mark of 79.4 fWAR is definitely near Hall of Fame level, and his best season according to FanGraphs is an even more respectable 6.9 WAR.
Lewis Tian (1964-82), SP
66.1 bWAR/54.8 fWAR, 229 wins, 172 losses, 3.30 ERA (114 ERA+), 3.47 FIP, 2,416 K
Tiant unfortunately passed away just last month. He was a hilarious player and a real guy with one of the best beards in baseball history. But that shouldn't overshadow his greatness.
Tiant didn't win the Cy Young Award in 1968 as Denny McLain won 30 games, but to modern eyes, Tiant led the league in ERA, shutouts, and FIP that season. He became the best pitcher in the American League. , H/9.
Tiant's career didn't follow a traditional arc, spending the next few seasons going through the wilderness a bit before finding himself again in Boston in 1972, winning his second ERA title. He finished in the top five for the Cy Young Award twice over the next few years and enjoyed great postseason success in 1975.
Despite his meandering career path, Tiant finished with 229 wins and a 114 ERA+. By comparison, this is more wins than Catfish Hunter and a better ERA+ than Nolan Ryan.
Who will enter?
I'll categorize these players into three groups, but I'd like to point out that I'm a “big hole” guy. To me, Allen, Tiant, and Boyer (in that order) are all Hall of Fame players based purely on their playing careers. Harris, Donaldson, and John are players whose entire stories make them worthy of being enshrined. For me, Parker and Garvey fall a little short.
However, each member can only vote for three players (mathematically, there can be a maximum of four Hall of Famers), and baseball seems more conscious of including players who are still on the roster. (This group includes only Parker, Garvey, and John). . Knowing the history of these committees, my official prediction is that Donaldson, John, and Allen, who was one vote short in 2015 and 2022, will be on the committee.
