The quickest way for the Giants to climb out of quarterback hell is also the quickest way to extend their stay there for at least three more years.
With Daniel Jones on the bench in place of Tommy DeVito and his disappointing six-year tenure with the Giants set to end in March, the internal search for the next franchise quarterback accelerates. There is. The Giants (2-8) are already working toward a top-five pick in the draft, and part of the equation is in place.
There's just one big problem. The 2025 quarterback draft class is considered weak by the standards of the past decade, especially when compared to its historically highly regarded 2024 predecessor.
Do the Giants need to spend a big first-round pick on Jones' replacement anyway? Or is it a recipe for disaster?
“Isn't that how they got into this situation in the first place?” As Eli Manning nears retirement and coveted prospect Justin Herbert returns to school, one NFL scout says, he asked rhetorically, referring to overdrafting Jones with the No. 6 pick in 2019.
Peeling back the layers of the Great Giants quarterback controversy that has captured the attention of fans requires nuance: How much is their draft pick worth? How many quarterbacks are worth being a first-round pick? Who will be the controller? Are draft predictions often correct? What are the alternatives? Can you afford to postpone the quarterback pick until the 2026 draft and punt it for another season?
But the biggest question is whether it's worth the risk of forcing a quarterback draft to fill a need. If you already feel like crap hitting those picks, why not take a chance and reach for them?
“Demand is driving the quarterback market because people aren't disciplined,” said one NFL executive. “When you have options, you create patience. What happens is, when you get into the draft, teams don't have options, so they start throwing darts. You have to solve problems, but you don't get convicted. You don’t have to be proactive about something you haven’t received.”
ESPN draft analyst Matt Miller says Colorado's Shedule Sanders and Miami's Cam Ward are the only two quarterbacks likely to be drafted with a first-round grade. , both are projected to be top-10 picks. That's not great for nine teams currently with two or three wins, including six teams who may be considering QB changes in the offseason.
What could be more depressing?
Miller said both Sanders and his “surgical” accuracy and Ward and his “ability to build speed like crazy” were among the top four quarterbacks he rated in last year's class (Caleb Williams, Jaden Daniels, Drake Make, JJ McCarthy — and match his No. 5 and No. 6 options (Michael Penix Jr. and Bo Nix).
“When you turn 30 and find out all your friends are married and have kids, you start to feel a little bit of pressure, like, 'Maybe I should find someone,'” Miller said. “That's how QBs get promoted every year. Someone will make the jump and try to justify it after the fact instead of falling in love with the actual player.”
Will it be the Giants? Assailant? Titans?
The Giants tried and failed to trade Daniels or Maye from No. 6 to No. 3 in the draft, but passed on McCarthy, Penix Jr. and Nix. A year later, they are currently scheduled to pick No. 4 and have a 21 percent chance of reaching No. 1, according to ESPN analysis, but the situation will change over the next seven weeks against the 13th-toughest remaining schedule. It will change.
How does someone in Giants general manager Joe Schon's position tell the difference between true love and forced love when faced with a once-in-a-career opportunity?
“We want to stick to the board,” said Mike Tannenbaum, former Jets general manager and founder of the 33rd Team think tank. “The more process-driven you are, the more likely you are to get the right decision than the wrong one. Over time, you'll find that drafting as needed will make mistakes.”
Who is your boss?
Time is not infinite in the NFL.
If Schoen and head coach Brian Daboll stay, they will enter Year 4 and identify their franchise quarterback after trying to sign Jones to a four-year, $160 million extension and failing miserably. I will be working on the second part.
If they have a hot seat, they might prefer to sign a veteran who wants to win right now.
Or, like the Giants did with Jones, pressure forces them to hire a prospect even though they know a proper development schedule should extend into the 2026 season, since it's not a good idea to make drastic changes after a quarterback's rookie season. There is also a possibility of overdrafting.
“You have to make a two-year commitment,” another NFL executive said. “Because the next coach or GM might not agree with the quarterback you drafted, and that narrows the search.”
A new structure with a larger runway could give the 2025 class a more honest look. But John Mara originally hired Shane and Daboll in part because of their experience drafting Josh Allen and developing him with the Bills after six teams (including the Giants) passed in 2018.
“You can force a quarterback who has rare physical and athletic ability,” said another scout. “But I don't want just any quarterback. I want the right quarterback who has the vision for me.”
Quarterback evaluations in 2025 will be done against the backdrop of a shorter lead than in previous years for top picks. Bryce Young of the Panthers and Anthony Richardson of the Colts (2023 No. 1 and No. 4 picks, respectively) were benched as second-year pros.
Between these two potential busts, CJ Stroud became the Texans' franchise changer. The feeling inside the Giants is that they're either Stroud or Daniels — both rookie sensations — and they're out of the playoff picture.
“There's a lot of factors that go into making these decisions and it's confusing,” said NFL Network analyst Mark Ross, former scouting director for the Giants and Eagles. “What would you do if the owner pressured you to choose?'' Or what if you were the last year GM?
“If I’m a lame duck, I’m going to take a swing because if I trot out a 40-year-old, I know what I’m going to get and I’m not going to be here next year. When you have job security and freedom, you can say, “This is how I evaluate talent, so I'm taking action,'' instead of always going into desperation mode.''
complicating factors
The joke since Manning retired was that one day his nephew, Arch, a five-star recruit, would become the Giants' quarterback.
Now, Arch will finally be eligible for the draft in 2026, but he hasn't even started full-time at Texas yet. LSU's Garrett Nussmeier and Penn State's Drew Aller – both eligible for the 2025 draft but considered likely to return to school – and Tennessee's Niko Iamareaba are making waves in scouting circles. However, there is no early consensus that 2026 is a must-see. .
Waiting longer than this April for the next glimmer of hope as a stopgap to replace Jones is a big ask of disgruntled Giants fans who have endured a 39-85-1 record since 2017. Only the Jets are worse, as two of their many draft failures, the selections of Sam Darnold (Vikings) and Geno Smith (Seahawks) are a cause for rethinking about where to find the answer. It became.
“When a team says they want to find Sam Darnold for next year, that situation exists, but you have to be better at evaluating than others to find it,” the first executive said. “Some teams are changing it to $10.” [million] or $15 million per year [quarterback] And until they arrive at a long-term answer, they will succeed because of it. ”
Tannenbaum once traded Mark Sanchez for a draft pick and paired him with veteran Mark Brunell when Brett Favre left the Jets — a combination of “like” and “need”. he said.
He was thought to be just a fill-in, but he identified Smith, Darnold and Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers), three journeymen who are all playing well on his fourth NFL team, as necessary personnel. pointed out.
“The Giants need a quarterback to stabilize the position,” he said. “You can win for today, develop for tomorrow and draft someone who may or may not be in the first round.
“Good organizations are ready to take advantage of opportunities. I think in this day and age you can't go a few years in a row and expect people to believe in what you're doing, so it's a long-term strategy. I think you have to balance that belief with short-term success. It's a position where you have to exhaust all possible solutions.”
Miller said three SEC quarterbacks were selected in the second round: Georgia's Carson Beck (interception), Texas' Quinn Ewers (inconsistent) and Alabama's Jalen Milroe (low passer). He said that there were still flaws in the discussions. Anyone can be promoted through the NFL combine, college pro days, and private meetings.
“It's such a travesty that quarterbacks are invented at all times postseason,” Ross said. “When you go to a game, you should know right now, 'This is the person.' Everything from there is validation. Mistakes happen when you're talking about yourself to someone. We're talking about what is considered a weak class at this point. Come March, everyone will say, “This guy can be a franchise man.'' ”
What lies ahead?
Hall of Fame executive Ron Wolf believed in drafting a quarterback (not necessarily a first-round pick) every year.
Ross observes that teams these days have more “leeway to tell themselves all the advantages and ignore all the disadvantages.”
Miller predicts that in 2025, multiple years of college experience will become more valuable to scouts, and trade prices won't be as high as they normally would be without a “golden goose.”
Quarterback classes rarely work out as expected. Since the historic 2020 class that produced five quarterbacks with the first 53 picks who later signed extensions worth more than $50 million per year:
— 2021: Four of five first-rounders are on second teams.
— 2022: Of the nine quarterbacks drafted, the last quarterback (Brock Purdy of the 49ers, No. 262 pick) is the only starter.
— 2023: Young and Richardson are headed in a completely different direction than Stroud.
— 2024: The No. 12 overall pick (Knicks) is the sixth quarterback in 2024 over the No. 1 pick (Williams).
For the Giants, the process is even more complicated.
“Intangibles and personality may be more important in New York than anywhere else,” the first executive said. “Not everyone can handle it.”
But the search is ongoing.
