Whether you’re pleased with this week’s midterm results or feeling a little under the weather, there’s a reason for some optimism. It has nothing to do with which party came out ahead.
For years, we’ve heard that America is irreparably divided: that politics has become tribal, people inherit their loyalties, and nobody is open to changing their mind. Democrats vote Democratic, Republicans vote Republican, and independents often seem to settle into a familiar pattern, too.
So why bother trying to persuade anyone? Surely everyone has already decided.
Except they haven’t. And that may be one of the more heartening lessons of this election.
I study what people believe, why they believe it, and what might lead them to reconsider. I’ve even written a book about persuasion. Still, after watching politics grow more hostile over the past decade, I sometimes wondered whether Americans could be persuaded at all.
Facts seemed to get sorted by party. Arguments were judged by the person making them, and changing your mind could look like betrayal rather than growth. We began treating disagreement as a diagnosis: the other person must be foolish, malicious, misled, or consuming the wrong news.
Then voters complicated that picture. They showed us, once again, that they aren’t permanent members of political teams.
Consider Michigan, Texas and Kansas. They have different political histories and different electorates, but each offers a reason to question the idea that political identity determines how someone will vote. Candidates can still reach people who might not have been inclined to listen. A message connected to voters’ real concerns can still make them reconsider.
Of course, election results alone can’t tell us exactly how many people changed their minds. Some outcomes may reflect new voters turning out rather than old voters switching sides. I feel obliged to say that, even if it takes a little shine off the point.
The broader lesson still holds: political coalitions shift, and voters don’t belong to any party.
That isn’t a weakness in democracy. It’s part of how democracy works.
We talk about polarization so often that it can start to sound permanent, as if people arrive at the polls with their views fixed for life. But Americans are more complicated than a party label. Someone might favor conservative spending policies and support more liberal approaches to health care. They might be troubled by immigration while also worrying about government overreach. They can back a president and feel disappointed in his party, or be angry with Washington while still hopeful about their community.
People can hold conflicting views. And, importantly, they can change their minds.
Usually, that doesn’t happen because someone shouts louder, spends millions repeating that the other candidate is terrible, or gets a celebrity to weigh in. It happens when an argument connects with something in a person’s own life.
That’s persuasion. It isn’t about tricking people or pushing them to abandon their values. It means finding the part of your argument that speaks to what someone else knows and cares about.
When that connection happens, a voter might cross party lines. A longtime partisan might take another look. Someone who normally ignores politics might decide that an issue deserves attention this time.
None of that means the country is suddenly united. We still disagree, sometimes bitterly. We retreat to our corners and too readily assume the worst of people who vote differently. Thanksgiving dinner may still need a seating plan—and perhaps a referee.
But disagreement doesn’t mean people are locked into their views forever. Division isn’t the same as hopelessness.
The founders didn’t expect everyone to agree. They created a system in which people could argue, debate and challenge one another, with voters ultimately deciding what happens next. It was built around ideas, and around the belief that leaders must earn support rather than simply inherit it.
No party owns a voter indefinitely. Good ideas can still prevail, if someone makes a convincing case for them.
That’s worth remembering amid all the post-election analysis. If people can change their minds, our future isn’t already settled by our divisions. Politicians have a reason to listen, and the rest of us have reason to keep talking.
If an election can surprise us, perhaps our neighbors can, too.
So whether your candidates won or lost, take a little comfort: America may not be as stuck as we thought. People are still listening. Arguments still matter. Ideas can still change minds.
After years of hearing that the country is hopelessly divided, that may be the most encouraging result of all. And as someone who has written about persuasion, I’ll admit I’m relieved. I wasn’t eager to write a sequel called “Nobody’s Listening.”
