Donald Trump's victory was helped in no small part by the unexpected shift in support he received among Gen Z voters.
While voters under 30 still favored Kamala Harris, her margin of victory was much smaller than the one enjoyed by President Joe Biden. 2020 Verified Voter Filesecured 59 percent of the youth vote, compared to 35 percent of young voters who supported Trump. Depending on which exit poll you look at, Trump improved his performance by: 8 points and 11 points Compared to the 2020 election, there was an increase among younger voters.
But President Trump's performance with the nation's youngest voters was highly uneven along gender lines. AP poll survey analysis Tufts University Circle The survey found that young women favored Harris over Trump by an 18-point margin (58% to 40%), while young men favored Trump by a 15-point margin (56% to 42%). . Trump's gains were particularly strong among young male voters, as just four years ago a slim majority of men under 30 supported Joe Biden.
Why did Trump do so well among young people?
Some people point out that Trump's masculine tough-guy aesthetic It is considered particularly attractive to young men. This is particularly relevant in some cases. Research shows that young men Their ideals are increasingly less feminist, and they are probably more likely than older men to believe they face discrimination in society. What young women get Results have been achieved in terms of academic progress and increased participation in the workplace.
President Trump's hypermasculine themes have long appealed to many socially conservative voters, but man and woman), it is less clear whether these appeals were as effective for the majority of young male voters this fall as I argue. Gen Z men are more disdainful of women It may be exaggerated.
For example, according to an analysis by the American Institute for Boys and Men, Gen Z men Broad support for gender equality Even though they are reluctant to call themselves feminists (and are more likely to do so than older men).
However, the Trump campaign's decision courting young male voters Manosphere media personalities such as gamer Adin Roth, influencer Logan Paul, and comedian Joe Rogan have put President Trump on board because their platforms, like other Zoomers, largely eschew legacy media. It was a wise move, given that it attracts a huge audience of young men.
These manosphere personalities themselves often project tired, sexist tropes, but more importantly than what President Trump says on these shows, at least one camp is reaching out to young people to support them. It may have sent a signal to young men that they were interested in acquiring him.
By contrast, the Harris campaign seemed far more interested in securing the vote of young women than appealing to young men. It may have seemed justified as a political strategy. Compared to older women and their men, women under 30 stubborn liberalmore feminist; deeply involved as a leader in a progressive political movement.
Since Gen Z was given the right to vote in 2018, young women are It turns out that more votes are being cast He became involved in politics at a higher level than most young people and worked hard for Democratic candidates.
For example, in the 2022 midterm elections; A whopping 72% of young women Voters supported Democratic Congressional candidates compared to 54 percent of young adults, likely primarily because: Dobbs decision. my organization research Seven out of 10 Gen Z women support the legality of abortion. They also far more likely to prioritize abortion as a voting issue than men. In 2022 exit polls, 44% of young voters said abortion was their top priority, more than double the number who said the economy.
However, according to exit polls, this year's presidential election was not a referendum on abortion among young people. only 13 percent of young voters They cited abortion as their most important concern.
Voters’ ability to get an abortion, despite the very real consequences faced by young women in states where abortion is not available. ratify abortion protections Its inclusion in state constitutions in many states, including red states, may have neutralized the impact of abortion as a voting issue.
Instead, like older Americans, about 4 in 10 Gen Zers cited the economy and jobs as their top priority. Despite numerous macroeconomic indicators that point to a strong U.S. economy, high costs of living and inflationary pressures dominated the concerns of most voters, especially young Americans.
our 2024 PRRI American Values Survey We found that about 7 in 10 Gen Zers worry about being able to afford a well-paying job, daily living expenses, medical bills, and perhaps most importantly, rent.
Harris' message about how her economic policies will help young Americans clearly did not resonate with enough young voters. And President Trump's plan to impose tariffs on imports into the United States actually accelerate inflationEconomists say his criticism of the Biden-Harris administration's economic policies resonated with many young voters because the cost of living was easier to manage before the coronavirus pandemic.
The basis of most US elections is that if the incumbent party in the White House is unpopular, And most Americans are maxed out financially and often want change..
As analysts decipher what worked and what didn't this election cycle, Democrats will do a better job of broadening their party lines and reaching out to disaffected youth in future elections. It is necessary to They cannot simply rely on the votes of young women to move forward. Harris' declining support among young women suggests that campaigning solely on social issues may not be enough for Democrats to win future elections.
At the same time, if and when the Trump administration chooses to enact a number of policies; Project 2025 envisions highly unpopular social policiesthese decisions will likely further alienate young voters.
Dr. Melissa Deckman PRRI is the CEO of a nonprofit, nonpartisan research organization dedicated to conducting independent research at the intersection of religion, culture, and public policy.
