History is often a useful guide, and Republicans are looking back at 2006, when the party suffered a major midterm setback under a Republican president serving his second term. Some older Republicans may also remember 1986, when the party lost eight Senate seats, though that election offers a less relevant comparison.
A revealing note about polling from The Washington Post on Friday offered some encouragement to Republicans, particularly in states that backed President Trump in 2024. The paper said its pollsters had made 85,000 calls and sent 50,000 text messages in Kansas while measuring support for Republican Sen. Roger Marshall, who faces Democratic challenger Adam Hamilton.
About 32% of Democratic voters in Kansas responded, compared with just 12% of Republicans. The Post acknowledged that this gave “good reason to suspect the poll overestimates Democratic candidates’ support.”
That admission should make analysts cautious about drawing firm conclusions from polling in 2026. Neither party has especially strong public data to lean on, but history offers at least some perspective.
For Republicans, 2006 is probably the closest comparison, and it is not a comforting one. The electorate has changed so much since 1986 that using that year as a guide would be a stretch. In 2006, President George W. Bush described the GOP’s losses as a “thumpin’.” The party lost six Senate seats and 30 House seats, so Republicans have reason to take the comparison seriously.
Still, there are important differences between that election and this one. In the third quarter of 2006, GDP growth was reported at 1.6% in October, later revised to 2%. This October, growth came in at a much stronger 3.4%. Republicans can point to an economy that is gathering speed, and some voters—especially people who have recently found work—may feel that improvement.
Other economic measures are less favorable. Inflation was 2.1% in 2006 and is now 3.7%. Gas averaged $2.25 a gallon then, compared with $4.20 today. Those costs are likely to weigh on Republican candidates.
Housing is another pressure point. The average rate on a 30-year fixed mortgage was about 6.36% in October 2006; today it is 7.25%. Younger people trying to buy a first home, or move into a larger one, may not think of the earlier period’s 3% to 4% mortgage rates as an unusual exception. They may simply feel they missed their chance.
The article argues that voters should understand higher fuel and living costs in the context of Trump’s confrontation with Iran’s leadership, which it describes as a longtime adversary of the United States. Presidents dating back to Bill Clinton warned Iran that military force was possible if it continued its nuclear program. Iran did not stop, even after the 2025 strikes that the administration called “Operation Midnight Hammer.”
Iran’s government, the article says, resumed rebuilding its nuclear program and continued supporting armed groups in the region. It also holds the regime responsible for the deaths of more than 1,000 Americans since the 1979 revolution, and calls Iran the world’s leading state sponsor of terrorism. The author argues that weakening or bringing down the government would be Trump’s greatest achievement.
One major difference from 2006 is that the United States had been fighting in Afghanistan for five years and in Iraq for three. In October of that year, more than 100 U.S. service members were killed in Iraq and 10 in Afghanistan. News reports at the time described it as one of the deadliest months of the war.
The United States and military families were paying a heavy price, and victory did not seem close. The article says the U.S. is now clearly winning its conflict with Iran, though it has not yet secured a decisive victory. It credits the blockade with putting Iran under severe pressure. Since February, 23 U.S. service members have been killed. The author describes the effort to remove what he calls a longstanding threat in the region as costly.
These comparisons involve two Republican presidents in their sixth year in office, although Trump’s terms are not consecutive. Bush’s second term also began badly in 2005, amid the Terri Schiavo controversy, Hurricane Katrina and the collapse of his Social Security reform effort.
In Trump’s first 22 months back in office, the administration has closed the border and kept it shut, avoided a large tax increase, introduced tax cuts for tips and overtime, and increased defense spending. The article also points to falling crime as federal authorities step up enforcement, and argues that diversity, equity and inclusion programs have lost ground. It says Democrats continue to support positions that many voters see as extreme, including allowing transgender girls to compete in girls’ sports and opposing voter ID requirements.
Candidate quality is another difference, the author argues. Democratic Senate candidates who won in 2006 included James Webb, a Marine Corps veteran; Sherrod Brown, then a younger politician in a more Democratic Ohio; and Jon Tester, who had strong ties to Montana.
This year, Democrats are running Democratic Socialists of America-backed Troy Jackson in Maine, Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan and Mary Peltola in Alaska, whom the article describes as dogged by scandal. The author says James Talarico is also a very different kind of candidate from Bob Casey Jr., who defeated Rick Santorum in Pennsylvania in 2006. Brown, now 20 years older, is trying to return to the Senate after Ohio voters rejected him two years ago. The article compares his current presentation to Joe Biden’s in 2022 and notes that voters understand a Senate term lasts six years.
Midterm spending totaled about $2.8 billion in 2006. This cycle’s final figures are not available, but estimates put spending at roughly $4 billion, with Republicans holding a significant financial advantage.
Bush made 16 campaign appearances in October 2006. Trump has made at least 30.
Republicans should prepare for the possibility of another 2006, the author writes, but a less damaging outcome would not be surprising. Sens. Susan Collins, Jon Husted, Roger Marshall and Dan Sullivan have run strong campaigns, while Republican challengers Mike Rogers in Michigan and Michele Tafoya in Minnesota are described as formidable candidates facing weak Democratic opponents.
Redistricting is another uncertainty. A large Democratic wave could erase gains from Republican redistricting efforts. On the other hand, voters today may be more aware of political issues than in the past.
“Trust the people” was Winston Churchill’s phrase, inherited from his father. The author concludes that everyone should follow that advice.
