TA series of Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon on Sunday morning, followed shortly after by hundreds of drones and rockets fired by Hezbollah, marked the largest exchange of fire across Israel’s northern border since the Hamas attack on October 7. With Gaza ceasefire talks remaining stalled and the Palestinian death toll in the region standing at a horrifying 40,000-plus, the nightmare scenario of a regional war involving Lebanon and Hezbollah’s backer, Iran, is terrifyingly plausible.
For now, at least, all parties appear to be trying to avoid such an outcome, despite the mutual shows of force over the weekend. In a brutal display that dominates relations between Israel and Hezbollah, Sunday’s attack is likely to be considered by Jerusalem as an Israeli attack. assassination Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah stressed that one of Hezbollah’s top commanders had decided to avoid causing casualties among Israeli civilians in attacks last month targeting Israeli military facilities and a Mossad spy base near Tel Aviv.
Meanwhile, Israeli Foreign Minister Israel Katz said Israel does not want an all-out war and has destroyed about 40 rocket sites in a preemptive strike. The lack of civilian deaths on either side indicates both countries’ desire to keep options open and to keep tensions moderate. Iran, which has yet to retaliate following the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran, has also maintained restraint despite promising retaliation.
This caution underscores the very high stakes and reflects calculated self-interest: Israel is reluctant to open a new front in the north where Israeli lives would be costly, and Hezbollah does not want to risk a disastrous repeat of the Second Lebanon War of 2006. But with messages being conveyed through the medium of explosives, the risks of miscalculation and unforeseen consequences are high.
As domestic pressure mounts on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu over the 80,000 Israelis displaced from the north by Hezbollah activity, he seems likely to keep his promise that Sunday’s airstrikes “are not the end.” It remains to be seen at what point Iran will decide it needs to intervene on behalf of its proxies.
In this ominous and divisive context, the Gaza ceasefire negotiations taking place in Cairo this week, brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, take on even greater significance. Putting an end to the relentless suffering inflicted on the people of Gaza and the return of the remaining hostages captured on October 7th would eliminate Hezbollah’s immediate reason to fight and create an opportunity to de-escalate tensions in the region more broadly.
Unfortunately, disagreements over the continued presence of Israeli troops in Gaza make an agreement unlikely anytime soon. Netanyahu’s self-interest is to prolong the conflict, appease the far-right in his coalition government, and postpone a political resolution beyond October 7. As he appeases public anger and faces corruption charges, his instinct for self-preservation is the biggest obstacle to breaking away from the cycle of violence started by Hamas.
As long as this vicious cycle continues, and as long as the outrageous plight of the Palestinians in the Gaza Strip continues, the risk of regional conflict, whether accidental or deliberate, will only increase. This weekend’s explosion on Israel’s northern border represents a new red line, in scale, if not lethality.
