“handOh, the most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff,” Donald Trump told business leaders in October. “These are my favorite words. We need a public relations firm.''Now that he has won the election, Trump's words are shaking the world's capital. Many fear he will pull back the curtain on the U.S. economy, locking it out of the world's biggest market and cutting off access to American technology. Those concerns have been exacerbated by last year's contraction in merchandise trade, the first of its kind. contraction A time when the world economy was growing.
But instead of taking Trump's words literally, it would be wise to take them seriously. During his last term, he imposed tariffs on: $400 billion Renegotiated the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) to resolve U.S.-China trade issues and bring back blue-collar jobs. In many ways, Joe Biden continued and even accelerated these trends. Trump's average is 144,000 Annual re-landing job. In 2022, Biden 364,000.
As a self-proclaimed consensus builder, Trump will likely seek better terms for the U.S. economy. German automakers are concerned. South Korea I'm looking forward to it If Mr. Trump raises tariffs, Chinese companies will need to increase investment from the United States. The EU, China and Japan are on alert. The difference this time is that Trump's unpredictable approach seems even more erratic, and the right's rhetoric is even more erratic. It can be a bumpy ride.
Britain is in a bad position to deal with a global trade war. united nations point It was revealed that export revenue decreased by 4% compared to the previous year. This is partly due to weak demand from major partners such as China. However, we should not underestimate the continuing impact of a disastrous Brexit.
Importantly, protectionist attitudes by rich countries are not new. In 2022, the EU became the first major economy to legislate “green tariffs” on imported goods. A year later, the UK announced plans to follow suit. by 2027both of which would charge goods based on the carbon emitted during production, a move aimed at preventing “pollution havens” where emissions are simply offshored to less regulated regions. .
While this may sound like a positive move, it is sufficiently destructive to “free trade” that some developing countries have branded it discriminatory and made public commitments. retaliation. Africa, home to 33 of the world's 46 least developed countries, could suffer losses, according to research $25 billion It is paid annually from the Green Levy at 2021 prices. Part of this impact is due to the fact that key exports such as fertilizers, cement, and steel are more carbon-intensive when produced in Africa than in other regions.
Curbing the progress of developing countries seems not only unfair, but short-sighted. What we need is fair trade, not “free trade.” This is probably not Trump's favorite word, but it should be. African countries develop on conditions that suit their needs and foreign exchange Essential for the green transition. Otherwise, the rich world risks undermining Africa's growth. This will be a loss not only to Africa but to the world.
Rich countries did not grow by taking advantage of the policies they currently impose on poor countries. Almost all countries relied on tariffs and subsidies to build their industries, even Britain. claim There is virtually no state intervention. As global competition for green technology, AI, and robotics intensifies, trade policy needs to be made more equitably than it currently is.
