President Joe Biden and his chief negotiator Amos Hochstein deserve a lot of credit for bringing about a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. The terrorist organization had no reason to start a new conflict with Israel on October 8, 2023, but it clearly did so at the behest of the Iranian government.
Indeed, when Hamas leadership initially approached the late Hassan Nasrallah to try to get Hezbollah to agree to a coordinated attack on Israel, Hezbollah leaders objected.
Israel then retaliated so violently that Hezbollah It lost much of its fighting power. It lost both its longtime leader and its newly appointed successor, as well as at least a third of its missile launchers, much of its infrastructure, and many of the tunnels it was building in preparation for expanding attacks into northern Israel. Ta.
Not surprisingly, Hezbollah was suddenly prepared to agree to a 60-day ceasefire. In announcing the ceasefire, Mr. Biden said: Both sides said they had “accepted the United States' offer to end the devastating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah.” He added that the ceasefire “aims at a permanent cessation of hostilities.”
But Hezbollah has said little other than to say it has accepted the ceasefire. I haven't made any long-term commitments yet. In fact, shortly after Biden's announcement, the terrorist group was still sending vehicles into the lower reaches of the Litani River, which they are expected to withdraw under the terms of the agreement. Additionally, Lebanese media reports that civilians have begun returning to their homes in southern Lebanon, in violation of an agreement not to return until all Israeli forces have left.
Israel similarly makes no long-term commitments. On the contrary, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu emphasized his country's freedom of military action if Hezbollah violates the ceasefire, and Biden also emphasized it. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu stressed in his announcement of the agreement that it would not prevent Israel from resuming attacks after his 60-day term expires. like him put it down“The duration of the ceasefire will depend on what happens in Lebanon. …The war will not end until all the objectives of the war have been achieved, including the safe return of the population of the north.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu may also be betting that Israel will not face any opposition in Washington if it resumes war with Hezbollah. After all, when the 60-day ceasefire ends, Donald Trump, not Biden, will become the president of the United States. And it is widely believed that Prime Minister Netanyahu expects more support from the new president than he receives from the current White House occupant.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement that the war in Gaza continued and had actually escalated even after a seven-day ceasefire that included the release of 81 Israeli hostages and 240 Palestinian prisoners expires in November 2023. did. His statements on Gaza contrasted sharply with Biden's stated desire to end the war in Gaza.
Indeed, there is little prospect that the Gaza conflict will end anytime soon. Hamas continued to call for a ceasefire, but without mentioning the release of Israeli hostages, it called for all Israeli forces to withdraw from the engaged and devastated area. There is no chance that Israel will accept these conditions now. That's because, in addition to previously rejecting the terms, the Lebanese ceasefire allows Prime Minister Netanyahu to emphasize his “determination to complete the annihilation of Hamas.”
Prime Minister Netanyahu has good reason to maintain that commitment. First of all, numerous report He said he had effectively exempted the remaining 101 Israeli hostages held in Gaza. If there is any truth to these reports, there is nothing stopping him from trying to “annihilate” Hamas.
It also needs to appease its right-wing partners in the government, who want to press for war even if it means ethnically cleansing northern Gaza. National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, the most radical member of the coalition, strongly opposed the Lebanese ceasefire agreement and was the only member of the security cabinet to vote against it. Prime Minister Netanyahu cannot afford to alienate Ben Gvir to the point where he forces the extremist minister's Otzma Yehudit party to leave the government and collapse.
Prime Minister Netanyahu continues to face charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, and is scheduled to testify in court on December 10th, but if convicted he could be sentenced to prison unless he remains prime minister. There is sex. Without the support of Ben Gvir and his party, that would be a problem.
Finally, Prime Minister Netanyahu emphasized that the main concern remains Iran. He now says Israel's Oct. 26 attack on Iranian facilities contained “key elements of a nuclear program” and had previously been seen as a big red line by the Tehran regime. acknowledged. Biden still wants to reach an understanding with Iran, and Trump may do so too given Elon Musk's mid-November meeting with Iran's ambassador to the United Nations, but Netanyahu has ruled out such an idea. No hair. He still wants to continue chasing what he calls “the head of the octopus” and remains “determined to do whatever it takes to prevent Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.”
Biden and his team deserve credit for the ceasefire they negotiated between Israel and Hezbollah. But a ceasefire is just a ceasefire and nothing more.
As the president claims, the Lebanon deal is certainly a step toward resolving the entire Middle East crisis. But it's just a small step and cannot be easily undone. The crisis is not over yet.
Dov S. Zakheim is Center for Strategic and International Studies and Vice Chairman of the Board of Directors Foreign Policy Research Institute. He served as the Under Secretary of Defense (Inspector General) and Chief Financial Officer of the Department of Defense from 2001 to 2004 and as Deputy Secretary of Defense from 1985 to 1987.
