The Future of Star Wars Looks Troubling
The situation seems to be deteriorating for The Mandalorian and Grogu, as well as for Disney and Lucasfilm regarding the Star Wars franchise as a whole.
Over a decade ago, “The Force Awakens” became an incredible success, setting box office records in the U.S.—at least before inflation adjustments. While many criticized it for being derivative, it did make an effort to provide a cohesive narrative for new Star Wars trilogies.
Since then, it’s been a downward spiral.
After the release of The Last Jedi, it became apparent that Lucasfilm, under Kathleen Kennedy’s leadership, lacked a coherent strategy for the series. The Last Jedi contradicted many aspects of The Force Awakens, didn’t clarify previous plot points, and seemed to undermine beloved characters, which is, I guess, emblematic of broader issues in contemporary filmmaking.
Disney’s Star Wars Sequel Faces Major Setbacks
In a rushed effort, the studio brought J.J. Abrams back to rework The Rise of Skywalker, but it faced considerable backlash over its implausible storyline and lack of clarity. Now, seven years later, The Mandalorian and Grogu marks the first Star Wars release of the 2020s in theaters.
However, the film’s opening weekend ticket sales were disappointing, landing around $81 million, which, to be frank, wasn’t very impressive considering past performances—especially when compared to Solo, another non-trilogy entry. This puts Disney in a precarious position where they might even incur a loss.
If the film had received favorable reviews, it could have picked up momentum in its second week. Unfortunately, recent box office results show just the opposite.
According to Box Office Mojo, The Mandalorian and Grogu not only lost its number one ranking but fell to third place with a staggering 70% drop in revenue. From a lukewarm opening weekend of $81.7 million, it slid down to just $25 million from Friday to Sunday. While such drops aren’t unheard of, this situation is certainly dire.
Interestingly, the films that outperformed The Mandalorian were low-budget projects helmed by new directors. For instance, “Backrooms,” a horror film made for just $10 million by a young YouTuber, managed to earn $81.4 million in its debut weekend without even being released in theaters over the holiday. That’s just wild.
Meanwhile, “Obsession,” directed by another young filmmaker who became famous on social media, earned an estimated $26.4 million. Its budget was around $750,000—likely a fraction of what The Mandalorian spent just on supplies. Just puts things in perspective, I guess.
These results further indicate that Disney is looking at significant financial losses with The Mandalorian. The production and marketing costs reportedly hit around $300 million. Even with tax credits, recouping just $500 million globally seems unlikely, especially with domestic sales standing at a mere $137 million—a staggering decrease.
At the current trajectory, if there’s another 70% drop in its third weekend, it might only manage about $7.5 million, well below the $200 million mark domestically. Despite a slight uptick in international sales, the overall revenue is projected to fall under $375 million, leading to potential losses exceeding $100 million for Disney. Hard to imagine, right?
These events serve as a cautionary tale that goes beyond mere numbers. It shows that releasing uninspired, low-effort films—even under a once-great brand—might not cut it anymore. Years of undermining the Star Wars legacy with subpar streaming series and unsatisfying conclusions have clearly taken a toll.
Today’s youth don’t seem to hold Star Wars in the same regard as previous generations, mainly because the films they’ve seen simply haven’t lived up to expectations. It’s crucial to focus on storytelling and character development rather than merely ticking boxes and meeting quotas. Do people really connect with Rey, Poe, and Finn? Probably not. Yet, icons like Han Solo, Princess Leia, and Luke Skywalker still resonate strongly with audiences. It appears that under Disney and Kathleen Kennedy’s helm, the essence of what made Star Wars unique has been lost. Unfortunately, as the recent events show, it might be too late to turn things around.
