If the two hurricanes hit in quick succession, the final week of the presidential election could become extremely close and chaotic.
Even though most Americans focus on the human toll caused by the one-two punch of Hurricanes Helen and Milton, this storm will inevitably become a major political issue.
There are currently three ways current politics could impact the race between Vice President Harris and former President Trump.
One is the potential for a backlash against President Trump's penchant for misrepresentation and penchant for disruption, even in moments of crisis like this.
The other is a blowback against Harris if she is seen to be exaggerating her role in the response.
A third possibility is that a major stumbling block in the federal government's response could spur public anger against the Biden-Harris administration. There isn't much evidence of this so far, but it remains a risk as states across the South deal with the aftermath of both storms.
At least 10 people died in Florida from Hurricane Milton, which was far less than feared. However, the storm left up to 3 million people without power and caused widespread damage. Helen has already killed 20 people in the state.
With Florida at the center of both storms, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (R) has also been embroiled in a political battle, with arguments fired in both directions between him and Harris.
Meanwhile, some Republican figures representing affected states have sought to distance themselves from some of President Trump's most disingenuous claims. This is an unusual break with the former president, who had tightly controlled the party.
President Trump has on several occasions tried to pin the blame on Harris, Biden, or the federal government for some kind of egregious negligence.
He suggested that Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) assistance for people whose homes were destroyed is capped at $750. This is not the case, and appears to be creating confusion between short-term emergency benefits intended for immediate assistance and broader assistance that federal agencies can provide over time.
Biden hit back at Trump on Thursday over the claim.
“It's a lie to say that's all they're going to get,” Biden said from the Executive Office Building adjacent to the White House. “That's weird. They have to stop this. I mean, the way they talk about this is so un-American.”
President Trump has also sought to incorporate criticism of FEMA into a broader political argument on immigration. Specifically, it argued that funds spent by FEMA to house illegal immigrants were contributing to a shortfall in disaster relief efforts.
This is also not true. FEMA helps administer programs to help house immigrants, but that funding comes from a separate source from disaster relief, as Chairman Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) said. I admit it.
FEMA Administrator Deanne Criswell suggested that false information could hinder recovery efforts and deter people from seeking the assistance they deserve.
“If they don't apply, we can't give it to them,” Criswell said earlier this week. “And if people are afraid to apply, that hurts them.”
This concern is shared by some Republicans. On Tuesday, Representative Chuck Edwards (R.N.C.) announced: long statement The title is “Debunking the Helen Reaction Myth.''
Edwards did not mention Trump by name, but his document highlighted some of the misinformation the former president spread.
That said, dealing with the twin storms hasn't been smooth sailing for Harris.
Exhibit A in this regard is her altercation with DeSantis.
The episode began with reports that Florida's governor refused a call from Harris. But he soon got into a war of words with the vice president, who suggested DeSantis was “irresponsible” and “selfish.”
A combative DeSantis shot back that it was Harris, not him, who was trying to “politicize” the storm.
He went on to accuse Harris of exaggerating her importance in this and previous disasters. “She has no role,” DeSantis said in an interview on Fox News. “I've been dealing with a number of storms under this administration, and she's contributed nothing to those efforts.”
There are risks for Harris, given that vice presidents typically do not play a leading role in immediate recovery efforts from natural disasters.
So far, no political moment has been as large as Hurricane Katrina in 2005, when the federal government's widely criticized response dealt another blow to then-President George W. Bush.
However, heightening the political risk of the year was the fact that Georgia and North Carolina were severely affected by Helen. These are two of the seven battleground states that will determine the outcome of the election.
A new poll from The Hill and Emerson College released Thursday shows Trump with a 1-point lead in each of those states, which together account for 32 Electoral College votes.
More than 230 people are believed to have died from Helen across the South, including more than 100 in North Carolina and more than 30 in Georgia.
As South Korea tries to recover, negative perceptions clinging to Trump and Harris could cause seismic shifts in an election that appears precariously in the balance.
The Memo is a reported column by Niall Stanage.
