The NFL’s passing crisis has one solution, and it’s not banning Cover-2

NFL offenses are in crisis. Huh! The points are down! The yards per pass attempt is down! Can someone please think about the offense?

Countless solutions have been offered to help awful offenses figure out how to overcome Cover 2, with the most damning coming from NFL Draft commentator and now world-famous defense hater Mel Kiper Jr.

What happened to the game I love?

Additionally, NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah proposed an idea that seems unpleasant to the eye and to the NFL.

Simply put, I think NFL offenses need to get better. That would solve a lot of the issues with offenses not being able to score. Not being able to beat a 2-high defense is a skill issue in my opinion.

But I think the issues the offense faces when playing against a two-high shell are a result of the defense adapting and evolving, and the offense still figuring out how to adjust.

How We Got Here

It's really hard to quarterback in the NFL. Yeah, shocking, right? But to say two-high safeties are the only thing stopping passing attacks belies the creativity and adaptability defenses have put in. Sure, two-high shells are becoming the norm for defenses, but the question is how they get to these coverages. Defenses are no longer static. What you see before the snap is different after the ball is snapped.

According to Pro Football Focus, NFL defenses will rotate after the snap 29% of the time this season, up from 25% in 2023 and a big jump from 22.7% in 2021. Of course, the 2024 numbers are weird because two games have been played, but even just looking at it when you turn on the TV gives you an idea of ​​how many passes defenses are throwing to their opponents. Minnesota Vikings Safety Harrison Smith on Sunday. He'll have the longest yardage in the league as he flies from the line of scrimmage to the deep half of the field in Cover 2.

These split safeties not only confuse the QB about who is where after the snap, but they also give the defense an advantage when it comes to offenses that use motion. When Shanahan and McVay's offenses started to take the NFL by storm in 2017, they were playing against teams that used static Cover 3 a lot because of the success of Seattle's Legion of Boom. All they did was use motion to force the defense to either get out of the box and run the outside of the zone or take action and hit over the route all game long. Split safeties don't have to be changed or declared because they are balanced on either side when it comes to the use of motion by the offense. The offense has no clue whatsoever and it shifts the chess game called football in their favor.

But the change in the landscape doesn't just apply to defensive coverage, it applies to pressure as well. As NFL offenses began using positionless players, two-way players like Deebo Samuel, George Kittle, and Alvin Kamara, defenses adapted their player configurations. Gone are the days of 260-pound linebackers who could power the run game and occasionally blitz (we miss you, Dont'a Hightower). These guys are now edge defenders who can push outside zone runs back inside and drop into coverage as well. Linebackers are getting smaller to run faster against over routes and drop into deeper zones. A 220-pound safety? Congratulations, you're now a WILL linebacker!

This allows defenses to get creative with blitz packages and pressure. See that nickel corner on the right? Yep, he might be just as likely to blitz as the off-ball linebacker. And that defensive tackle lined up over center? Well, he might not be blitzing at all either. Good luck!

A lighter defense allows for more versatility in defense against these spread offenses and allows for pressure from different areas. The use of picks and stunts up front really stresses communication between the offensive line and overloads the QB with too much information after the snap.

Which brings me to my next point about how we got to where we are today: Offensive line development is really, really bad right now. First, let me say that one of the reasons it's really bad right now is simply human population data. There aren't that many guys who are athletic enough to be offensive linemen and big enough to be offensive linemen. You can turn a running back into a receiver, a receiver into a tight end, a linebacker into a defensive lineman. But you can't really turn that many of those guys into offensive linemen. Not only that, but you need five guys who can get a quality practice together in an NFL game. It's just not realistic to find offensive linemen because the guys who are big enough to play on the line are already under contract to play on the line with other teams.

Now, when these players join a team, their NFL development and the attacks that NFL defenses put on them are really awful. But you can't blame the college coaches. At the college level, their job is to win games, not send players to the NFL. The college game is very different from the NFL, with wide hashes and disqualifying calls downfield not as strict at the lower levels, so many teams run RPOs and are ill-prepared for the simulated pressures and stunts that NFL defensive coordinators put on them. NFL rules on offseason practice and contact give teams very little time to work on these stunts and pressures. Offseason contact practice is prohibited by the NFLPA. Linemen can practice passing stunts without contact, but when it comes to shooting, the situation is very different.

So, simply put, defenses will be more diverse and able to blitz from anywhere, and QBs will be saddled with offensive lines that don't have as much time or development to work with stunts. Good luck!

How can we solve this problem?

No, the answer is not to ban the two-high defense. The answer is simple.

I'm not saying run just for the sake of running. NFL teams are getting very creative with their gap schemes and how they execute them to attack defenses that are getting lighter and lighter. Former safeties now playing as WILL linebackers? Yeah, they have to fight 320+ pound guards coming through the B gap. Have fun. In 2022, I wrote about how teams are using the run game to beat opponents that stick with a two-high shell, and we're starting to see that in 2024. As screens and checkdowns become more popular, saying “run the damn ball” is becoming a legitimate way to get explosive plays out of an offense.

The most interesting thing about this conversation is that you can throw passes downfield and have explosive offenses against two-high shells. Concepts like Mills and double posts can be used against these defenses. The problem is that these are long, extended plays that need proper protection, and that's where the offensive line play becomes important. We need better development and more time to develop quality offensive linemen at the NFL level. More teams need to spend more time working with their linemen in the offseason and bring back some contact during the offseason so they can work on these stunts at the right level to compete against NFL defenses.

Running the ball is back and it's great. Banning Cover 2 and quarter coverage won't solve anything. Spreading the hash won't help and may hurt more. The defense made adjustments in this game, but now the offense needs to make adjustments too.