The red-blue divide is growing deeper — how much does it affect how laws are made? 

The United States appears to be increasingly divided politically between “red states” and “blue states,” with many serious public voices on both sides calling for separating the country along the red-blue divide. We ask that you seriously consider this.

Various sharp differences of opinion among the people regarding criminal law issues are the driving force behind the secession movement..Let's consider an obvious example like abortion, decriminalization of marijuana, “Stand your ground” legislation, death penalty and Concealed Weapon Carrying Law. Are red and blue values ​​so fundamentally different that we need to be aware of the reality that red and blue codes exist?

recent research They address this question by examining the criminal laws of six deep red states and six deep blue states, states where a single political party has held the governorship and control of both legislative bodies for at least some period of time. I tried to answer. The last three elections. In addition, we identified 93 legal issues where we believe there are significant differences between the criminal law rules of 12 states.

The analysis of patterns of agreement and disagreement among the 12 states was striking. Of the thousands of issues that must be resolved when drafting criminal law, only a handful have shown a clear pattern of red and blue differences: criminal law issues that have been the subject of public political debate. It was only a small part of it. The other 93 legal issues on which the 12 states differed had no statistically significant correlation with red-blue status.

For example, the red-blue divide that many expected did not emerge, such as criminal law provisions regarding insanity defenses, self-defense, the use of no-fault liability, the use of “three strikes” laws, statutes, etc. Ta. Forced use of deadly force, age of consent for sexual intercourse, etc.

So what explains the pattern of disagreement among the 12 states on criminal law issues, if not red and blue?

This study investigated a variety of possible effects. Do state characteristics, such as population, or criminal justice characteristics, such as crime rates, explain these state differences? Ultimately, we find that the influence of these factors is also limited.

The study identified 122 state characteristics that are presumed to have the potential to influence state criminal law rules. After performing a correlation analysis between all 122 characteristics for all 93 criminal law rules showing differences across 12 states (total of 11,346 correlation tests), only 4.7 percent showed statistically significant correlations. , most of them are likely to be the result. A third element mediates between legal rules and national characteristics.

Perhaps it is not red and blue, or any other single influence, that explains the formation of state criminal law rules, but rather the complex interplay between various influences.That list could include, for example, whether the nation's modern recodification depends on American Law Association Model Criminal Code, as is the case in three-quarters of the states. This likely includes the impact of national headline events such as: President Reagan assassination attemptand in the case of local incidents that over time grow into national movements. Tracy Thurman and domestic violenceas well as local headline cases that produce only local state effects.

Each state also appears to be influenced by random events, such as legislation passed by neighboring states. Like when Georgia quickly imitated Florida and criminalized giving water to people in line to vote.or when nevada Copied immediately California's new law makes it a crime to leave a baby in a car.

In other words, the evidence suggests that there is no red code or blue code, and more importantly, there never will be. The dynamics of criminal law suggest that rule formation is the product of a complex set of interacting influences, apart from the simple red-blue divide.

Paul H. Robinson, the Colin S. Diver Professor of Law at the University of Pennsylvania, co-authored with Jeffrey Seaman and Mohamed Saraneh, Confronting the Failure of Justice: Getting Away with Murder and Rape (Rowman & Littlefield, forthcoming 2024). ) is the author of .