Both Russia and Ukraine express a desire for peace talks, leading to questions about what a potential agreement might entail and the associated risks.
Security Guarantees
Ukraine, which endured a significant invasion in 2022 and experienced Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014, emphasizes the need for security assurances from major powers, especially the U.S.
I think they’re looking for something stronger than the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, where Russia, the U.S., and the U.K. committed to respecting Ukraine’s sovereignty and not using force. Under that pact, they merely agreed to take Ukraine’s case to the UN Security Council if it faced aggression.
The dilemma, as pointed out by various sources involved in the discussions, is that strong security guarantees could entangle the West in future conflicts with Russia, while weaker assurances might leave Ukraine exposed.
The draft peace proposal reviewed by Reuters suggests “robust security assurances,” similar to NATO’s Article 5, which obligates member states to defend one another during an attack. However, Ukraine is not a NATO member.
As part of an earlier, unsuccessful negotiation in 2022, Ukraine was to consider permanent neutrality, backed by five permanent members of the UN Security Council, including the U.S., U.K., France, China, Russia, and others. However, officials in Kyiv firmly maintain that accepting this neutrality is a fundamental red line.
NATO and Neutrality
Russia has repeatedly claimed that Ukraine’s potential NATO membership is a core reason for the conflict, insisting on Ukraine’s neutrality and not allowing it to become a foreign military base. Ukrainian President Voldymir Zelensky stated that Moscow cannot dictate Ukraine’s alliances.
During the 2008 Bucharest Summit, NATO leaders agreed that Ukraine and Georgia would eventually be welcomed into the alliance. In 2019, Ukraine amended its constitution to pave the way for full NATO and EU membership.
U.S. envoy General Keith Kellogg remarked that NATO membership for Ukraine is “off the table.” Additionally, former President Trump suggested that past U.S. backing for Ukraine’s NATO membership contributed to the war’s onset.
In 2022 discussions, Russia pushed for Ukraine to adopt permanent neutrality, proposing restrictions on Ukraine’s military capabilities. However, Ukraine is strongly opposed to any limitations on its armed forces.
Russia claims no objections to Ukraine pursuing EU membership, although some EU nations may resist Kyiv’s bid.
Regional Control
Moscow currently occupies about one-fifth of Ukraine, with these territories now formally regarded as Russian despite lacking broad international recognition.
In 2014, Russian forces seized Crimea. Presently, Russian troops dominate nearly all of Luhansk, and, according to Russian estimates, more than 70% of the Donetsk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson regions, with smaller areas in Kharkiv also under Russian control.
The most detailed proposal for peace put forth by President Putin in June 2024 demands Ukraine withdraw from these regions.
A draft plan from the Trump administration recognized Russian control of Crimea, effectively acknowledging Russia’s hold on parts of Luhansk, and some areas in Zaporizhzhia, Donetsk, and Kherson.
While Ukraine is adamant against any legal acknowledgment of Russian sovereignty over occupied territories—viewing it as a violation of its constitution—they are open to discussing territorial matters once a ceasefire takes effect.
“The main concern revolves around the region and nuclear power plants, including access for Ukrainians to the Dnieper River for maritime exit.”
Sanctions
Russia is hopeful that Western sanctions will be lifted but remains doubtful about the timeline for this. Even if the U.S. eases sanctions, other nations’ sanctions may linger for years, including those from the EU, the UK, Canada, Australia, and Japan, while Ukraine wishes to see these sanctions persist.
Reports indicate the U.S. is exploring ways to relax sanctions on Russia’s energy sector as part of a broader strategy to enable a swift uplift should Moscow agree to cease hostilities in Ukraine.
Oil and Gas
Trump has indicated that the recent decline in oil prices might prompt Putin to consider a resolution to the Ukrainian situation. However, the Kremlin has countered that national interests are at play concerning oil prices.
There is speculation among some diplomats that the U.S., Russia, and Saudi Arabia might be seeking lower oil prices as a part of a broader arrangement that spans various global issues.
Earlier, reports suggested U.S. and Russian officials were discussing ways to facilitate the revival of Russian gas exports to Europe.
Ceasefire
European powers and Ukraine insist on a ceasefire prior to any discussions, yet Moscow contends that such a ceasefire would only be effective if verification matters are resolved. Kyiv argues that Moscow has been stalling.
Reconstruction of Ukraine
Rebuilding Ukraine will require hundreds of millions of dollars, and European nations are considering using some of the Russian assets frozen in the West to support Kyiv. Russia finds this proposal unacceptable.
Although Russia might agree to use its $300 billion in frozen sovereign assets in Europe for reconstruction, it argues that military expenditures would cover only a portion of the territory it controls.
Ukraine, on the other hand, hopes to invest all seized assets into post-war reconstruction efforts.
