It took less than two weeks for one of the world's worst dictatorships to fall. The end of Syria's Assad dynasty represents a clear victory and a huge opportunity for the United States and its allies. But if the United States fails to recognize the significance of what has just happened, that opportunity will quickly disappear.
Syria under Bashar al-Assad was a melting pot of regional conflict and instability that drew in major powers with numerous actors competing for influence. It is the epicenter of terrorism in the Middle East, giving strength to groups such as ISIS, al-Qaeda, and Hezbollah.
President Assad's main supporter Russian President Vladimir Putin saved Assad in 2015 and Expanding Russian military presence in Syria Project power against NATO's southern flank, all of southern Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Russia, currently stuck in Ukraine, has shown itself unwilling or unable to save its clients in Damascus.
The overthrow of Assad by rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a group that grew out of an al-Qaeda affiliate but now promises to alleviate Assad's worst atrocities, may just be an illusion of progress. Nevertheless, Assad's ouster would be a serious blow to Putin's prestige and a fleeting opportunity for the Western coalition and the United States.
The path to broader peace in the Middle East runs through Syria, now entering another cycle of upheaval. Although Putin lost this round, he was not eliminated from Syria. The Kremlin is taking a stand with the new government to protect its interests.
Russian state media no longer refers to Assad rebels as “terrorists” as they have consistently done for years, but this reportedly gives Russia security for its military bases and diplomatic institutions in the country This is a clear signal to anti-Assad rebels.
Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskovtold a journalist Russia said it was “taking all necessary measures to establish contacts with those who can ensure the security of military bases in Syria.” Additionally, Russia is a co-signatory of a document outlining Syria's political transition process.United Nations resolution 2254.
Russia has already granted asylum to President Assad and his family. called Hold a Security Council meeting on Syria in the hope of preserving Syria's role in its future. For Russia, the future of Syria will not be about securing true peace, but about maintaining Russian influence and power through continued instability in the Middle East and defiance of the United States.
In fact, Russia's role in Syria has never been about Assad's security or the defense of Syria itself, but about the power and influence Russia maintains throughout the conflict. The question is whether the United States recognizes the historic opportunity presented by the overthrow of Assad to bring about a better vision for the country, or will it choose to forego it?
As always, what is happening in Syria has repercussions beyond the country. In the era of President-elect TrumpsignaledThe United States should not be involved in Syria, and called for intervention in Syria.immediate ceasefireRegarding Ukraine, some Russian commentators have indicated that the fall of President Assad may actually occur.hardenPresident Putin's position on Ukraine further reduces his willingness to compromise.
President Putin has a tendency to become violent when cornered, and if he loses in Syria, he could end up in the following situation. escalate elsewhere The goal is to intimidate Western countries into making concessions, as was the case recently with the use of an experimental nuclear-capable Oreshnik missile against the Ukrainian city of Dnipro. In other words, today Putin's Russia is at its limits, with limited resources, but still hands on deck. Russia was wounded in Syria, but it will recover if it does not fight.
Washington should take the lead in the Syrian diplomatic process and corral Moscow. If the United States is absent, Russia will enter into an agreement with any ruling authority. Now is the time to ensure Russia loses its military bases in Syria.
President Putin is only halfway out of Syria. By pushing him through the rest, the United States can secure American interests in the Eastern Mediterranean, the Middle East, and beyond.
Anna Borshchevskaya is the Harold Grinspoon Senior Fellow at the Washington Institute and “Putin's Syria War: Russia's Foreign Policy and the Cost of America's Absence” (Bloomsbury 2021).
