With less than a month until the Republican National Convention and a public decision on former President Trump’s running mate looming, three candidates have emerged as front-runners for a vice presidential pick that could quickly determine the front-runner for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination.
North Dakota Governor Doug Burgum (R-Ohio), Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) and Sen. Marco Rubio (R-Fla.) are currently seen as the front-runners, but several others have also received vetting materials, meaning Trump could make a surprise choice, according to Trump allies and people close to the former president.
“I don’t know what’s going to happen, [I’m] “I’m pretty confident it’s going to end up being one of those three,” one Trump supporter told The Hill.
Trump told reporters in Philadelphia over the weekend that he has chosen a candidate to join him in the Republican nomination race in November, but has not yet revealed who that is.
The former president also said he would have his running mate at Thursday’s debate with President Biden. Burgum, Rubio, Vance and several other Republicans are scheduled to appear with Trump at a fundraiser in Atlanta after the debate.
“As President Trump himself has stated, the number one criterion in choosing a vice president is a strong leader who will be a great president for eight years beyond the end of his next four-year term,” Brian Hughes, a senior adviser to the Trump campaign, said in a statement. “But anyone who says they know who President Trump will pick as his vice president, when and where, is lying — unless they are Donald J. Trump.”
Amid a dramatic start to Trump’s campaign and a largely drama-free primary season, intrigue over his choice of running mate has become a popular social game in Washington. For months, the former president has hinted at the selection process, dropping hints about who is on his shortlist and when he might announce his choice.
Trump has signaled he may announce his running mate at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee next month, but strategists and Trump aides say the timing is fluid and the announcement could come as soon as early July, before the GOP gathering.
The field has been narrowed down to three candidates: Burgum, Vance and Rubio, each of whom brings different strengths to the slate, has different lobbying groups and none of them are from states expected to be battleground states in November.
Burgum and Vance have been quite active in recent months, appearing on television to defend Trump, attending Trump’s criminal trial in New York City last month and attending fundraisers and rallies with the former president.
Burgum is not well known nationally, but he is similar to Trump in that he has deep pockets and came from business to politics. Trump and his team like that Burgum is a disciplined messenger who won’t hide in the shadow of the former president or steal the spotlight. Trump and Burgum also have a good personal relationship, sources told The Hill.
But Burgum is more of a traditional conservative and may not be able to inspire Trump’s base or win over moderate voters, which could make Burgum’s chances of winning less if Trump is considering who will carry the MAGA banner in 2028.
Vance, by contrast, is widely seen as a representative of the next generation of the America First movement — the 39-year-old senator has accompanied Trump to fundraisers in California and Ohio in recent weeks — and he also has a powerful backer in Donald Trump Jr.
The senator has openly admitted to being critical of Trump during the 2016 campaign, something he highlighted in a recent appearance on Fox News, and Trump may want Vance as a leading voice in the Senate if he is re-elected.
And Mr. Rubio, a one-time rival who had a schoolyard exchange of verbal abuse with Mr. Trump in 2016 but has since built a working relationship with the former president, is likely to win over moderate Republicans and some minority voters who remain skeptical of Mr. Trump, having helped Mr. Trump prepare for the debates.
But Senator Rubio has not been as vocal about his desire for the Senate as other senators, and constitutional requirements to field candidates from the same state would require him to relocate if he were to join the Senate race.
The Trump campaign also sent research materials to Sen. Tim Scott (R-South Carolina), Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-New York), Rep. Byron Donald (R-Fla.) and former Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson, but these individuals fell into the second tier of vice presidential candidates under consideration.
There is skepticism from both sides of the aisle that whoever Trump picks will play a significant role in the outcome of November’s election.
Trump has downplayed the impact of his vice presidential choice, saying at a Fox News town hall event in February: “What always surprises me is that the choice of vice president has absolutely no impact. It doesn’t seem to matter who the president is.”
Democrats are similarly trying to keep the spotlight on Trump, arguing that whoever joins the presidential ticket will follow the same policies as the former president on the economy, climate and reproductive rights.
“You don’t have to know their names to know they’re people who want to ban abortion,” Vice President Harris said Monday in Maryland. “Every single person on that list has either supported a ban in their state or supported a national ban.”
