President Trump is likely to impose sudden tariffs on several major trading partners if new trade terms are not agreed upon by August 1.
On Monday, Trump suggested that countries unwilling to engage in business with the US could face tariffs ranging from 15% to 20%.
“We’re looking at setting tariffs around the world. That’s the cost for countries wanting to do business here since negotiating 200 deals isn’t feasible,” he stated.
This includes some prominent trading partners who have not been engaging with US trading policies.
China
Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent and his Chinese counterparts had discussions in China and Stockholm this week. These talks hinted at a potential extension of the trade agreement made in May, although specifics regarding the timing are yet unclear.
On Wednesday, Trump was briefed by his top officials about the situation with China, regarding the suspension of tariffs, and mentioned, “whether we approve it or not.”
Both countries are facing a tariff deadline in China set for August 12, which includes a 30% tariff by China and a 10% tariff imposed by the US. This rate has significantly decreased from earlier this year when a 145% tariff was placed on China, leading to a 125% response from Beijing.
“We have a solid relationship with China,” Trump commented on Monday, adding, “China is tough.”
On Tuesday, he mentioned that current customs discussions could pave the way for a meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, stating he wasn’t specifically seeking a summit with any counterparts.
The US imported nearly $4390 billion worth of goods from China in 2024, while US exports to China exceeded $143 billion, according to the USTR.
Mexico and Canada
Negotiations with Canada have hit a standstill, according to Trump last week.
“We haven’t had much success with Canada. They might just end up paying the tariffs. That doesn’t feel like a negotiation,” he remarked on Friday.
In a letter to Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, Trump warned of imposing a 35% tariff on Canadian goods. Canada accounted for $412.7 billion of US imports in 2024, and US exports to Canada reached $349.4 billion.
Additionally, Trump threatened a 30% tariff on Mexican goods. The basis for the earlier 25% tariff imposed on Mexico was linked to the flow of fentanyl across the southern border.
He sent a similar letter to Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum on the same day he threatened the European Union with 30% tariffs, subsequently signing a deal that reduced the EU tariff to 15%.
Mexico stood as the top source of US imports, totaling less than $560 billion in 2024, while US exports to Mexico were around $334 billion.
South Korea
Progress in discussions with South Korea remains unmentioned by the administration. It was noted previously that talks with the US aren’t straightforward.
Currently, South Korea is the sixth largest trading partner of the US, facing a 25% tariff on imports since April.
US imports from South Korea reached over $131 billion in 2024, while exports exceeded $65 billion.
Taiwan
The US has had three consultations with Taiwanese officials, and developments could happen at any time. However, the deal’s fate with Taiwan also hinges on US-China discussions taking place in Sweden.
There are concerns that Trump might separate Taiwan from trade relations as part of an agreement with China. Sources indicate that there’s contemplation about a new phase where Taipei may not rely on support from the White House.
Reports suggested that the Trump administration declined a request from Taiwan’s leader to make a visit to the US next month, stoking fears about the commitment to Taiwan’s democratic values amid strong trade relations with China.
Taiwan is the seventh largest trading partner with the US and faced a 32% tariff on imports in April. US imports from Taiwan in 2024 reached over $116 billion, with US exports totaling over $42 billion.
India
Key officials in the administration have been claiming they have pending agreements with India, but no formal announcement has been made yet.
When asked if the contract with India was finalized, Trump replied, “No, not,” further threatening a 25% tariff on Indian goods.
Last year’s trade between India and the US was valued at around $130 billion, following a friendly visit from Prime Minister Narendra Modi in February. Vice President Vance also visited India in April to discuss advancements in trade negotiations.
In April, Trump announced a 26% tariff on Indian goods during the “liberation day” announcement. India ranks as the tenth largest trading partner with the US, with imports from India amounting to over $87 billion in 2024. US exports to India reached nearly $42 billion.
Brazil
Trump announced Brazil will face 50% tariffs linked to the ongoing legal issues surrounding former President Jia Bolsonaro. He labeled the prosecution of Bolsonaro—a figure often referred to as “tropical Trump”—as a “witch hunt.”
Brazilian President Luis Inacio Lula da Silva has called on Trump to reengage in trade discussions, emphasizing he was “elected to not become the emperor of the world.”
Brazil is a significant trading partner for the US, facing a 10% tariff on imports since April. US imports from Brazil were over $42 billion in 2024, while exports reached nearly $50 billion.
Switzerland
Switzerland is hopeful that the draft trade agreement they’ve approved will be signed by Trump before the deadline.
Karin Keller Sutter, President and Minister of Finance, indicated they want Switzerland to be among the first to finalize deals with the US.
Switzerland ranks among the top 20 trading partners with the US, encountering a 31% tariff on imports in April. US imports from Switzerland totaled over $63 billion in 2024, while exports amounted to $25 billion.
Thailand
Thailand and Cambodia reached a ceasefire on Monday, concluding a five-day conflict.
Following the ceasefire, Trump directed the trade team to resume discussions. He had previously warned both countries that ongoing fighting could jeopardize potential trade agreements with the US.
Thai Prime Minister Phumtham Wechayachai expressed hope for a beneficial trade deal after the resolution of the conflict, noting Trump’s positive feedback.
Thailand stands as one of the top 20 trading partners with the US and is subject to a 36% tariff on imports as of April. US imports from Thailand totaled over $63 billion in 2024, with exports nearing $18 billion.
