On Monday, President Trump expressed hope that the ongoing conflict between Iran and Israel might soon conclude, shortly after Iran executed a notable missile strike aimed at a U.S. military base in Qatar, although it was effectively intercepted.
Analysts advise caution regarding Iran’s potential threats, despite a fragile ceasefire developing. Iranian officials are suggesting they have “various options” to consider as they return from bombing three nuclear enrichment sites on Saturday, with some methods being more complex than launching missiles.
“We’ve got 46,000 troops stationed abroad, and three active battle groups out there. The Iranians have many asymmetrical options available,” commented retired Army Brigadier General Steve Anderson, who was deployed in Iraq during the surge of 2007, during a CNN interview on Monday.
He added, “They could engage in cyber warfare against us or even conduct terrorist operations. We’ve talked about the sleeper cells that are here in America. There are plenty of capabilities still at Iran’s disposal.”
The potential strategies for Iranian retaliation against the U.S. include:
Cyber Attack
Iran has suffered due to over two weeks of Israeli air strikes, yet it still possesses advanced cyber capabilities.
Cliff Steinhauer, who heads Information Security and Engagement at the National Cybersecurity Alliance, views it as very likely that Iran might target government and contractor websites with significant traffic.
He noted that such cyber attacks could focus on less-defended targets, like local governments or small municipalities. “While there might be glitches, it likely won’t result in major shutdowns of critical infrastructure like power plants or water treatment facilities,” he observed.
“At this point, I think they might be aiming to instill fear rather than cause tangible damage from a cyber standpoint,” he added.
Iran is ranked among the top four adversaries of the United States, joining China, Russia, and North Korea, raising concerns about potential collaborations to enhance their cyber capabilities.
Tehran has a history of using cyber tactics for retaliation. According to Steinhauer, following U.S. airstrikes that resulted in the death of Major General Qassem Soleimani, Iran attempted to launch cyber operations against U.S. government entities and key infrastructure.
Additional Military Strikes
Following recent exchanges of fire with Israel, Iran is thought to retain around half of its initial stock of approximately 3,000 ballistic missiles, which pose a threat to 19 sites in the Middle East housing U.S. troops.
Iran has issued repeated warnings that if the U.S. becomes involved in the conflict with Israel, it would retaliate against American forces present in the region.
On Monday, Iran appeared to follow through on this threat, launching multiple missiles at the Al Udeid Air Base in Qatar around 7:30 PM. However, the attack seemed strategically calculated to prevent escalation, as there were no reported casualties.
This action by Iran largely seemed symbolic, but the country may pursue more unconventional means of confrontation with the U.S., such as targeting American diplomatic missions and trade establishments.
Another strategy could involve rallying proxy groups based in Iraq, Yemen, and Syria, which have previously engaged in attacks on U.S. interests.
Additionally, the waterways in the region could see Iran employing “swarm tactics” against U.S. warships, using drones and speedboats armed with missiles.
General Frank McKenzie, former commander of U.S. Central Command, remarked on Sunday that U.S. troops stationed in Iraq and Syria are “definitely vulnerable” to potential retaliatory actions from Iran.
Closure of the Strait
A significant global impact could arise from Iran’s potential closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which over 20% of the world’s oil passes daily.
This crucial waterway connects the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea, serving as a vital route for exporting oil and liquefied natural gas from the Middle East.
According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, around 20 million barrels of oil traverse the strait daily.
Disrupting this flow, such as through laying mines or attacking both naval and commercial vessels, could have severe ramifications for the global oil market.
While Iran has not yet taken steps to obstruct oil shipments globally, a proposal from the Iranian parliament’s National Security and Foreign Policy Committee on Sunday called for closing the Strait of Hormuz in response to the U.S. actions, according to local media.
Sleeper Cells
Officials from the Trump administration have warned that Iran might attempt to activate sleeper cells within the United States and the West as a form of retaliation.
A memo from CBP Commissioner Rodney Scott indicated that the threat posed by sleeper cells in the U.S. is “not currently high.”
Scott noted, “Thousands of Iranian nationals have entered the U.S. illegally, and there are likely many more that can go undetected.” He added, although there aren’t any reliable threats at the moment, the risk from sleeper cells or sympathizers might be greater than ever, whether acting independently or at Iran’s behest.
Former Defense Secretary and CIA Director Leon Panetta, who served under the Obama administration, voiced concerns about the real dangers posed by sleeper cells during a CNN interview last Thursday.
“They operate not just in the U.S., but globally, often in concealed networks focused on terrorism and assassination. Iran has shown it can execute operations in various domains,” he stated. “So, we really need to be vigilant about any efforts to cause chaos here in America.”
