Discussing politics on Thanksgiving is a tradition many of us can live without, but we can't seem to escape it. It's heartbreaking every four years, especially after the changing tides associated with presidential elections. This year, we saw remarkable results. Most notably, voters prioritized lowering the cost of Thanksgiving meals over bringing families together for civil conversation.
This is an oversimplification, but let's look at the numbers.
It's clear that voters cared more about cost than civility.
For decades, we, both Republicans and Democrats, have been conducting polls together on civility in political discourse. For the past five years, we've partnered with the Georgetown Institute for Politics and Public Service to take a deep dive into what this means for the state of politics. We conducted our latest poll of 800 likely voters immediately after the 2024 election results. We asked voters which candidate they think ran a more divisive campaign, which candidate they think sends a message of their ability to get things done more effectively, and which candidate represents the most common values. I asked them whether they thought it represented them well.
Although many voters believed that Vice President Harris was a centripetal figure and did not run a negative campaign in contrast to President Trump, President Trump had an advantage in important areas and It turns out that it has pushed it to the top. He was able to effectively message himself as a candidate addressing the kitchen table issues that were most hot to voters. Exit poll after exit poll shows that the economy was the top issue people were thinking about on Election Day, and the results show a pattern that reflects Trump's victory.
Some of the dynamics of the race are captured when voters are asked, “Which candidate is talking to you about this issue?” Vice President Harris has surpassed President Trump in tackling abortion, protecting democracy, sharing our values, and caring for people like me. 52% said Vice President Harris is the candidate who better conveys the message of uniting the country.
Conversely, voters think President Trump is more effective at talking about the economy, inflation, and immigration, and a majority thinks President Trump is better at getting things done, but a majority thinks President Trump is whiter. I don't expect him to be the unifier of the House.
It's clear that voters cared more about cost than civility. Based on the measures we have used over the past five years, the overall result has been a surprising decline in political tensions. It was driven primarily by Republicans feeling relieved after Election Day.
We measure it by asking people how they feel the country is doing on a 100-point scale. 1 is no division at all, 100 is civil war. This is a four-point drop from 70 to 66 since the previous survey in March, the lowest level in the five years this survey has been conducted. Democrats have the highest divisiveness score at 70, while Independents have a score close to the sample average (66), and Republicans have the lowest divisiveness (61). These scores specifically reflect a significant 14-point decline among Republicans since March, nearly flat among independents, and only a 2-point increase among Democrats.
Particularly noteworthy is the hope respondents share about a bright future and the possibility of cooperation between the parties. Despite President Trump's “tripartite” rule, 95% of those surveyed said they want President Trump, Republicans in Congress, and Democrats in Congress to work together to solve the major problems facing this country. I agree with the statement “I want it.” Additionally, 82% of respondents agreed that “it would be good for the country if President Trump and Congress could compromise and find a solution, even if we don't get everything we want.”
As a reflection of these expectations, when asked how much they expected the country to be divided one year from now, respondents answered with a score of 61 out of 100, indicating that the predicted division after September 2023 is We predicted a decline of more than 12 points, primarily led by Republicans. .
So how does this affect this year's Thanksgiving meal? Prices are predicted to drop quite significantly this year, with the average cost of a Thanksgiving meal increasing. From $67.84 to $58.08. Your Republican relatives may boast that this is the market reacting to President Trump's victory, but your Democratic relatives may brag that this is the Biden mix at work and that the country will You might say it's a sign that you've taken the wrong path.
Either way, we know that politics will be discussed in many households across the country this Thanksgiving. I just hope they'll be a little more polite this time.
Editor's note: This article was originally published by RealClearPolitics and made available via RealClearWire.
