Market Analysis and Stock Focus
This week, I intended to provide a brief overview of the NASDAQ-100, particularly observing retention trends established since May 13th. It’s important to note that completing this integration could necessitate testing higher thresholds, even amidst ongoing economic challenges. However, after discovering the partnership between Meta and Constellation Energy regarding nuclear contracts, I felt compelled to shift focus to companies fueling advancements in artificial intelligence. While I’m not invested in Constellation Energy, I do hold shares in Oklo, Ge Vernova, and Vistra through my tactical alpha growth portfolio at Inside Edge Capital. As AI continues to evolve, I believe these stocks could outperform the QQQ as this integration reaches new highs.
Today, let’s delve into Vistra Corp (VST), a stock I’ve also added to our “Fast Money” account, where it currently comprises 3.6% of our holdings. Recent news has seen many power generation and equipment suppliers climbing, aided by trends in the semiconductor market. According to my analysis, I’d recommend boosting your VST stake to about 5% of your active holdings.
But a bit about Vistra. This integrated power generation and retail utility has been instrumental in powering AI-driven data centers, meeting their significant energy requirements. In 2024, Vistra made a notable acquisition, spending $3.4 billion to incorporate four nuclear plants into its portfolio. Moreover, they have secured a Power Purchase Agreement with both Amazon and Microsoft while investing in natural gas and solar projects.
Vistra has consistently reported GAAP EPS since 2021, but analysts expect an 11.79% dip this year. Conversely, their non-GAAP EPS saw impressive growth rates of 378%, 88%, 54%, and 43% since 2022. Looking at the weekly chart, there’s nearby resistance around the $172-$177 area. If we can surpass $180, it would signify an exceptional milestone, prompting me to consider upping my position size.
On the daily charts, today’s activity shows a rise towards that resistance zone, spurred by the Constellation-Meta news. If VST can hit $180 this week, I plan to increase my investment and will note that support is currently backed at $165 as a risk management level.
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