(NEXSTAR) – As the colder months of the year begin, meteorologists around the world are getting a clearer picture of what winter will be like. This winter was initially thought to be dominated by La Niña conditions. But the Climate Prediction Center now believes it will be a weak and short-lived La Niña, if it occurs at all.
In an update released Thursday, the Climate Prediction Center lowered the likelihood of a La Niña event this fall and winter. The probability of that happening by November is now 60%.
The agency added that conditions appeared less favorable for a strong La Niña event. A weaker La Niña means we are less likely to see the typical effects of La Niña: cold, wet weather in the north and dry, warm weather in the south.
In the absence of La Niña or its El Niño equivalent, the situation is “ENSO neutral.” When that happens, “the crystal ball becomes even more blurred than normal,” Michele La Roux, a meteorologist with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration's Climate Prediction Center, said in an interview with Nexstar last year.
“ENSO neutral means conditions across the tropical Pacific are close to average, with no major disruptions to atmospheric circulation due to El Niño or La Niña.”
Without these disruptions, Leroux explained, other climatological factors, such as global warming and natural seasonal changes, would still have room to prevail.
The Pacific Northwest and Ohio Valley could still experience a cold and wet winter. Southern states will still be warm, with drought issues likely in the Southwest. All these outcomes are still possible, but they only become less certain in the case of a weak and short La Niña, or if La Niña does not materialize after all.
With no La Niña or El Niño in sight, long-term forecasts are more difficult to put together and look very different from past winters. Last year we had a strong El Niño, and the three winters before that we had La Niña in quick succession.
Although it is too early to issue seasonal outlooks for winter, the Climate Prediction Center has released predictions for a wide range of weather patterns from October to December. Most states are looking for warmer than average weather.
