On April 22, 2025, following attacks on civilians in Pahargam, Kashmir, Guo Jiankun, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, asserted China’s strong opposition to all forms of terrorism. However, China’s point of view, particularly regarding India-Pakistan relations, seems to align implicitly with Pakistan’s stance through three key assertions.
The first assertion is that China regards the incident as an unknown outcome involving local gunmen attacking civilians, a perspective echoed by major Chinese state-run media sources like New Flower and CCTV. Here, the distinction lies in the portrayal of the area as “India-controlled” Kashmir from China’s side, which subtly aligns with Pakistan’s narrative.
“Avoid premature conclusions”
This framing seems to downplay the seriousness of the incident, which raises India’s alarms over the infiltration of state-sponsored terrorism from Pakistan into Kashmir. Chinese media reports, particularly from Global Times, lend an oddly supportive tone to the terrorist group claiming responsibility for the attack, urging India to act “rationally” and “avoid premature conclusions.” This apparent disregard for the historical context of Pakistani terrorism on Indian soil is concerning for informed observers.
The second point is China’s formal hope that both India and Pakistan engage in bilateral negotiations to resolve their conflicts peacefully. This was notably emphasized by Guo Jiankun and reiterated by Chinese Foreign Minister in a press conference on April 28, where he urged both nations to handle their differences through dialogue.
Mediation or interference?
However, what’s curious is that the push for de-escalation doesn’t seem to stem from an outright desire for peace. Rather, it seems influenced by a belief among some Chinese analysts that India might struggle in a direct military confrontation with Pakistan. Some scholars hint that any escalation in Kashmir would not serve India’s best interests.
Other voices, like Gu Huoping, assert that Pakistan shouldn’t back down amid India’s aggressive posture, even referring to a potential hot war as a chance to test Pakistan’s military capabilities heavily reliant on “made in China” defense products. He draws historical parallels to suggest India lacks an advantage in conflicts with Pakistan, advocating for a strategic retreat.
How China will undermine India
What China said for Pulwama
CPEC angle
(Anushka Saxena is a Chinese Research Analyst for the Indo-Pacific Studies Program at the Takshashila Institution.)
Disclaimer: These are the author’s personal opinions.
