Few years have been as chaotic, dramatic and unpredictable as this one. 2024And there’s still a little over four months left.
No one knows what 2024 will bring, but the answers to three big, scary questions may give us some clues as to what’s to come.
First, what happens on November 6th, the day after the election? Second, what happens on January 21st, the day after the inauguration? And third, will it be Donald Trump’s election or Kamala Harris’ election that will be lost?
Most analystselectionThe outcome is difficult to predict. Between 50,000 and 100,000 votes in battleground states and districtsMake a decisionThe next president, meaning both sides will have reason to compete for votes in some districts.
If Trump loses, he will claim the election was rigged.2020Trump will use the courts to overturn the election results and paralyze the judicial system.
November 6th may see the most competitive election campaign in American history. Unlike the 2000 presidential election, 527 The Florida vote is expected to be challenged in several states as well as Nebraska’s 1st Congressional District and subject to judicial review.
This would be an electoral, judicial and political nightmare, with the ever-present threat of violence.
If events unfold as they did in 1876, when the electors failed to vote;Majority voteThe newly elected Speaker of the House will likely take over on January 21st, as a president needs to be chosen.actingpresident.
Constitutional Twelfth Amendment and Electoral College Counting The 1887 Constitution states that the House of Representatives selects the president and the Senate selects the vice president. Depending on which party controls both houses, it’s not inconceivable that Harris could choose J.D. Vance as her VP, or that Trump could choose Tim Walz as his VP.
Nothing like this has happened before, but given the extraordinary events of 2024, is it now unthinkable?
So what about a more violent version of January 6th? In this situation, would it be Trump’s election to lose, or Harris’?
In the days since Harris was nominated, her campaign has been nearly flawless. Fueled by a record number of Democrats who genuinely feared Joe Biden would not win, a tsunami of support has poured in far beyond her expectations. volunteer It’s starting to swell.
Tim Walz’s selection as Harris’ running mate was well received in some quarters, butStolen CourageControversy emerged over his “hypocrisy” in claiming to have served in wartime and his attempt to avoid serving in Iraq by retiring from the Army National Guard and running for Congress in 2010.
Ms. Harris’s enthusiastic, optimistic campaign style has been well-received so far: She’s charming, and her smile contrasts with Mr. Trump’s stern look, putting him on the back foot.
Veteran Republicans have made a persuasive argument that to win, Trump needs to focus on his policies and record, rather than knee-jerk attacks that belittle and denigrate his opponents. Name-calling may have worked in 2016, but today voters are tired of insults.
While Trump’s base is likely to remain loyal, independents and traditional Republicans may decide that his bombast is no longer tolerable.
Trump’s Performance At a press conference for the National Association of Black Journalists meeting Mar-a-Lago and X’s Interview The showdown with Elon Musk reflects Trump’s previous appearance, that is, his intimidating and negative attitude. If this situation continues and Trump is unable to change his tactics and strategy, he may lose in November. Therefore, it is no surprise that Trump will lose this election.
But won’t Harris lose too? Harris has not been tested. She Bent over They don’t post all the interviews and press conferences. policy But perhaps this is understandable given how abruptly she rose to the top spot: What would happen if she faced tough questioning or if the allegations against Waltz were to come true?
Harris has beenAccusedI don’t like people stringing words together in circular reasoning that is almost meaningless.FlippedOn many important issues: Will this situation continue?
There are two conclusions: first, either candidate could lose the election, and second, all the ingredients for a disastrous election outcome are in place, with 2025 being even scarier than 2024.
Harlan Ullman He holds a PhD and is a senior advisor to the Atlantic Council and lead author of “Shock and Awe” Military Doctrine. His twelfth book, “The Fifth Horseman and the New MAD: How a Massive Disruption Attack Became a Looming Existential Crisis for a Divided Nation and the Entire World,” is available on Amazon.
