The past 10 seasons have been something of a wilderness journey for the Detroit Tigers. The 2014 season marked the end of an era for the Tigers, who went from making the playoffs four years in a row from 2011-2014 to finishing with two ALCS appearances and an ALCS win in 2012. That window of opportunity closed for Detroit, and aside from one season in 2016 when the Tigers missed out on a Wild Card spot by three games, there was very little to get excited about for fans of the Motor City’s hometown team.
At this point, the Tigers have a tough road ahead if they want to return to October baseball. They sit a distant fourth in the AL Central, with division rivals Kansas City and Minnesota currently occupying two of the AL’s three wild card spots. At 33-35, the Tigers are 3.5 games out of contention for a Finals spot, putting them in the same league as the Astros, Rangers and Blue Jays in terms of winning percentage. This season will be a long one with ups and downs, but Detroit is still a bit of a long shot at this point. FanGraphs playoff odds give the Tigers a 12% chance of making the postseason as a wild card and a 15% overall chance of making the playoffs.
Needless to say, the Tigers are not the favorites to upset the big game in baseball this season. That being said, there is one reason to keep an eye on Detroit this season: Tarik Skubal’s performance on the mound. Skubal finished the 2022 season pitching 117.2 innings with a 90 ERA and 75 FIP, establishing himself as a bona fide major league starter. He then emerged as one of the best pitchers in baseball, despite missing the first three months of the 2023 season due to a flexor tendon injury that ended his 2022 campaign. Finally returning to the mound on July 4, 2023, Skubal got off to a strong start and quickly established himself as a true ace. I’m serious when I say he was one of the best pitchers in baseball last season. Skubal led all pitchers with a 3.3 fWAR after returning to the mound. Spencer Strider was second with 2.8 fWAR over that same period.
Considering all of this, it really isn’t surprising to see Tarik Skubal emerge as a Cy Young Award candidate once he’s fully healthy in 2024. Skubal was great coming off a 2023 season, but he’s even better this season. He finished 2023 with a 65 ERA and 47 FIP, both numbers well above average for a starting pitcher. He’s on pace to far surpass those numbers in 2024, as he enters tonight’s game against the Astros with a 49 ERA and 54 FIP. He’s also a great addition to Houston, His latest start There, he pitched 6.2 innings, giving up just one run on five hits and two walks while striking out 10. It was also the 11th time in 13 starts this season that the 27-year-old left-hander allowed two runs or less. Needless to say, he’s been pitching well this season.
Tarik Skubal is so formidable because he has five pitches at his disposal and hitters have no idea how to hit them consistently. His best pitch is a four-seam fastball, and he’s been slowly but surely gaining velocity over the course of his career. He may have finally hit peak velocity in his most recent starts. The radar gun recorded a speed of 101.7 mph. As This article According to MLB.com’s Jason Beck, it was one of the fastest pitches thrown by a starting pitcher this season. His deliberate efforts That’s to increase the velocity of his fastball. But it’s not the only pitch hitters have to worry about. His sinker averages 96 mph, the same speed as his fastball. Hitters are enamored with both pitches, with opponents batting .205 against the sinker and .169 against the fastball.
Opposing hitters have also had a hard time dealing with his other three pitches. His changeup is his second most used pitch after his fastball, but hitters are batting just .223 against it. He also has a slider that he uses a lot, but is only batting .194 against it. Finally, he has thrown 57 knuckle curves this season, As of 2024, you’re unlikely to find any video of someone getting hit by this. Yes. Opponents’ batting average against his knuckle curveball is .000. Sure, his expected batting average is .243, but the good news for Skubal is that his xBA is by far the highest of his four pitches: his fastball has an xBA of .205, his changeup has an xBA of .219, his sinker has an xBA of .191, and his slider has an xBA of .161. Simply put, it doesn’t really matter what Tarik Skubal is throwing, opposing hitters have had a very hard time dealing with any of it.
When Skubal needs to clear an at-bat, his changeup (45% whiff rate) and slider (35% whiff rate) are his go-tos. When he needs to get an out, any of his four main pitches will suffice. His highest put-away rate is his changeup at 31%, and his lowest of those four is his four-seam at 21%. He has some nasty pitches in his arsenal, and he’s throwing them all with great confidence so far. With all that in mind, it’s easy to see why he’s starting to get some attention. There is also talk of him being a potential Cy Young Award candidate. I’m here in June.
There have certainly been rumors floating around that Tarik Skubal might be traded at the trade deadline, but those rumors appear to be just that: rumors. Either way, Skubal is not the type of pitcher who should be traded for a team that still has playoff hopes. Jim Bowden of The Athletic stated The Tigers might listen to offers for a player like Jack Flaherty, but Skubal isn’t going anywhere.
Again, the Tigers aren’t at the top of the standings, but they are in the middle of the pack in the wild card race, and as long as that’s the case, Skubal should stay in a Tigers uniform. If the Tigers are going to return to the postseason in the near future, Skubal will need to stay in a Tigers uniform until they return in October. Detroit has some talent at the top of their starting pitching staff, and this could be the season the entire baseball world will be paying close attention to Tarik Skubal and what he can do on the mound.
