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Timothée Chalamet is defeated while Jessie Buckley triumphs at the SAG Actor Awards 2026 — what are their chances for the Oscars?

Timothée Chalamet is defeated while Jessie Buckley triumphs at the SAG Actor Awards 2026 — what are their chances for the Oscars?

A Look Back at Awards Season

Awards season feels endless, stretching out five months longer than baseball and six months beyond football. It’s like it just keeps dragging on.

Take, for example, the Sunday Night Actor Awards, previously known as SAG. The Best Ensemble award winners, who emerged back in April last year, never seem to fade from memory.

That’s why I’m honestly okay with the two-hour acting award ceremony, which serves as the last big stop before the Oscars. The accolades just keep rolling in.

In a notable win, Michael B. Jordan snagged the Best Actor award for his role in “Sinners.” And by the way, “Sinners” also took home the night’s top prize for Best Ensemble.

Fortunately, this Netflix production ran about 90 minutes shorter than the Oscars. Although, I have to admit, Kristen Bell’s humor as the three-time host was puzzling, and some of her jokes really didn’t land—like that ping-pong gag with Ted Danson and Jackie Torn.

Now, what does this night suggest for the upcoming Academy Awards on March 15? Perhaps some unexpected shifts in the landscape.

It’s worth noting that “Sinners” made quite a splash by winning the season’s inaugural major award, Best Ensemble, akin to the Best Picture award. But does it have what it takes to go all the way? Uncertain.

Paul Thomas Anderson’s “One Battle” recently earned the much more significant Producers Guild Award, along with almost everything else this season. If they were to lose, it would be a considerable shock.

Still, there are some hopeful signs for “Sinners.” Historically, two other films over the last 25 years have achieved significant wins after following a similar path through SAG and facing the critics’ circuits—namely, “Crash” and “Parasite.” The latter even went on to snag Best Foreign Language Film.

On the topic of wins, remember when “Moonlight” only got its Globe after that surprising victory over “La La Land”? And although “Million Dollar Baby” didn’t follow a straight path, it still managed to edge out contenders like “Sideways” and “The Aviator,” with Clint Eastwood taking home the Directors Guild Award.

While I’m still leaning toward “Battle,” if anything could disrupt that momentum, it just might be “Sinners.”

For Timothée Chalamet, the results from Sunday may add more pressure than his unhinged character would usually face. After losing to Robert Aramayo at last week’s BAFTAs, he fell short again at SAG against “Sinners” star Michael B. Jordan. Yet, there’s still hope for Paul Atreides—he’s not finished yet.

It’s interesting to note that SAG has historically liked to share the wealth.

No one has won Best Actor consecutively, but just last year, Chalamet did take home the award for his portrayal of Bob Dylan. The voting body tends to lean populist.

Let’s not forget, he lost the Academy Award to Adrien Brody for “The Brutalist,” a dark indie flick.

Even amid Chalamet’s strong presence, this Best Actor race is shaping up to be one of the most competitive in two decades. Jordan may have a solid shot at capturing another Oscar in just two weeks, though Brazil’s Wagner Moura from “The Secret Agent” could surprise everyone.

Then, there’s Leonardo DiCaprio, who hasn’t won yet, but he could still pull off an Oscar for his portrayal of Denzel Washington in “Training Day.” Ethan Hawke’s role in “Blue Moon” is also worth mentioning.

So, it’s not out of the question for Timmy to take home an Oscar while still ending up empty-handed for the third time. “Just call me by my name,” he might whisper. “Please.”

Jesse Buckley, on the other hand, is on an impressive winning streak and seems likely to clinch it all in 2026. She took home the Best Actress Award for her outstanding role in “Hamnet” and has yet to lose in any major category.

A week after winning a BAFTA, Sean Penn, though absent, received the Best Supporting Actor award for his role in “One Battle After Another.” While “Lockjaw” isn’t guaranteed yet, it looks like Penn is on track for his third Academy Award.

Amy Madigan took home the Best Supporting Actress award for her portrayal of Aunt Gladys in “Weapons,” a win that wasn’t surprising given her popularity in the union. She does have some fierce competition from Teyana Taylor in “One Battle” and Wunmi Mosaku in “Sinners,” both of whom could potentially shift the tides as their films gain traction.

On the television front, “The Studio” landed the win for the comedy series ensemble, while “The Pit” carried the day in the drama category, as expected.

One of the night’s highlights was Harrison Ford receiving a Lifetime Achievement Award. His speech oozed wisdom, humility, and an undeniable star presence, leaving the audience emotionally stirred.

As he put it, “Many actors come here to collect awards for their craft, while I’m just here to receive recognition for being alive.”

Absolutely, one of the best moments of an awards show we’ve seen in years.

The most poignant moment belonged to Catherine O’Hara, who posthumously won Best Actress in a Comedy Series for her work on “The Studio.” The audience gave her a heartfelt standing ovation.

Seth Rogen, who starred and created “The Studio,” accepted on her behalf, expressing, “We are so fortunate to enjoy her immense talent.”

Only two weeks remain until the Oscars.

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