The expanded college football playoffs have a significant feature: one of the 12 spots is reserved for a team from the Group of Five conferences.
Boise State, representing last year’s cohort, is seen as a strong candidate, having secured a third seed and a first-round bye in the 12-team bracket. Under the guidance of new quarterback Ashton Janti, they ended the season with a record of 12-2, their only losses coming from matches against Oregon and Penn State. They dominated the Mountain West with a perfect 7-0 record and clinched the conference championship by defeating UNLV, 21-7.
There seems to be no debate surrounding Boise State’s inclusion in the playoffs, and oddsmakers anticipate a similar scenario for 2025. Despite some concerns related to the NFL Draft, the outlook remains positive for the Broncos to be among the G5 representatives, not limited to just the Mountain West.
Boise State is considered the favorite to win their match (-155) at BET365, while Tulane stands as the only other G5 team with decent odds at +750.
However, the unpredictability of the 2024 college football season has taught us to expect the unexpected. Keeping that in mind, let’s explore a few potential long shots from the Group of Five conferences that could disrupt the playoff picture this year.
Toledo (20/1, BetMGM)
Although it’s relatively rare to see MAC teams in the college football playoffs, Toledo could break through. The Rockets are currently favored at +250, and ESPN’s Bill Connelly gives them a solid 25% chance to make a significant impact. He estimates an 11% likelihood of winning a playoff game in 2025. Their playoff prospects depend heavily on some of the big names in G5 faltering.
San Jose State (50/1, Fanduel)
Finishing 7-6 last season, San Jose State surprised many in the G5. Under coach Ken Niumatalolo, known for his triple-option background, they shifted to a fast-paced style with quarterback Walker Eget. This approach surprisingly yielded results, even though their returning roster ranked low for the upcoming season. If Niumatalolo and Eget can lead the Spartans to a bowl game in their second year together, it could signal significant improvement, especially since they won’t face Boise State or UNLV during the regular season.
UTEP (300/1, DraftKings)
UTEP, coming off a 3-9 season, seems like a long shot for 2024. However, if one squints hard enough, there are signs of potential for the miners in 2025. Despite a poor 2024 performance, they had some positive outcomes in their last six games, which could suggest a turnaround. The arrival of former five-star recruit Malakinelson, who previously played for USC and Boise State, could change the game for UTEP. He needs to quickly make an impact, but he holds the potential to be a standout player in the G5 landscape. The miners will need to step up in their conference to compete for titles, especially given how challenging last season was for them.
