Geoffrey Kendrick’s Insights on Tokenization and Altcoins
Geoffrey Kendrick, who leads digital assets research at Standard Chartered, recently stated that tokenization is now “100% locked in.” With traditional finance transitioning to on-chain methods, he anticipates that four altcoins will significantly benefit from the ensuing financial shifts: Uniswap (UNI), Aave (AAVE), Morpho (MORPHO), and Arbitrum (ARB).
Uniswap: A Potentially Underestimated Target
Kendrick had initially set a year-end target of $6.50 for UNI back in June when its price was below $3. Now that it has surpassed $9, he thinks his previous 2030 prediction of $100 might actually be rather conservative.
His assessment is largely based on the fee switch that Uniswap activated last December, which utilizes trading fees to buy back and burn tokens. Increased activity from Robinhood Chain has significantly raised the burn rate over the summer. There’s also the fact that despite competitors like Aerodrome offering incentives for switching, users tend to revert once those rewards cease. That said, Kendrick acknowledges that his burning theory is based on “literally one data point.”
Aave: Resilience After a Major Incident
Aave faced a roughly $300 million exploit linked to Kelp in April, but Kendrick feels more confident in its prospects after witnessing the community’s strong response. They rallied around $300 million, primarily in ETH, and the founder tightened risk measures, enabling liquidity to bounce back within weeks.
Kendrick considers Aave to be at the forefront of “on-chain banking.” He even suggested that it could have ranked around the 35th largest bank in the U.S. at its peak last year. When AAVE was trading near $170, it was close to his previous year-end target of $180, but he now believes that figure is too low.
Morpho: A Distinct Approach
In Kendrick’s view, Morpho and Aave are not in direct competition. While Aave functions much like a bank, accepting deposits and offering loans, Morpho, particularly through its vault product, serves more as a platform for asset managers. “Both can thrive,” he mentions.
Since Morpho is mainly held by venture funds, its token tends to be less volatile and liquid compared to AAVE, which is heavily influenced by retail traders. Kendrick expects Morpho to emerge as a leader in on-chain asset management over time.
Arbitrum: A Bold Prediction
Kendrick set a target of $10 for Arbitrum, which was about 70 times its price at the time of publication, and since then, the token has increased by over 60%. Arbitrum receives 10% of net revenue from Robinhood Chain due to its technology contributions, boosting its monthly revenue projections from approximately $1 million to an estimated $4 million to $5 million in September.
If a few more firms follow Robinhood’s model, he speculates that monthly revenues could possibly reach between $40 million to $50 million in two years. He also points out that Arbitrum’s valuation is about 30 times lower than that of layer 1 networks like Ethereum, Solana, and Avalanche.
