Bitcoin (BTC) is still experiencing a bearish trend, but one trading expert has suggested that technical indicators and historical data hint at a potential return to $100,000 within the next year.
This optimistic outlook comes after Bitcoin’s recent five-month period characterized by consecutive losses, following its all-time high in October.
According to data from TradingView, shared by trading shots, this scenario—a series of five consecutive red candlesticks—has occurred only twice before, in November 2011 and December 2018. In those instances, it marked the low point of the bear market.
That said, analysts caution that the presence of red candlesticks alone isn’t conclusive. Historically, the Fisher transformation from a one-month chart has proven to offer more reliable signals, typically indicating a bullish crossover after Bitcoin has reached a cycle low.
Past occurrences of Fisher bullish crosses were noted in mid-2015, early 2019, and late 2022. Analyzing the intervals, there were roughly 1,370 days between the indicators from 2019 and 2022. If this trend continues, the next bullish cross could potentially appear around September 2026.
Looking back, price bottoms have generally formed right before the Fisher Cross. In December 2022, the bottom was reached a month early, representing the shortest interval recorded, while in June 2015, the gap was five months, the longest observed. Thus, applying a shorter lag could suggest a bottom could form around August 2026.
From this anticipated low, experts foresee a bullish cycle that mimics past recoveries, which could lead to extended rallies and new all-time highs. Following this cycle pattern, Bitcoin might challenge or surpass $100,000 by early November 2027.
Bitcoin price falls further
In a different context, cryptocurrencies took a dive on Saturday following a coordinated military operation by the United States and Israel against Iran, sparking a wave of risk-averse sentiment in global markets.
During this tumultuous period, Bitcoin dropped by as much as 6% in a matter of minutes, falling from around $65,500 to $66,000, which resulted in a significant loss of approximately $75 billion to $128 billion in market value within the first hour.
A notable liquidation of leveraged positions occurred, with an estimated $100 million to $522 million wiped out quickly, including $100 million in long positions that lasted under 15 minutes. In addition, Ether (ETH) experienced a decline of 4.5% to 8.8%, settling at about $1,835 to $1,850, while other altcoins like XRP and Solana also suffered substantial losses.
This downturn followed Israel’s announcement of a “first strike” on Iran’s nuclear and military facilities, which was confirmed by President Trump as being part of a “large-scale combat operation.”
Bitcoin price analysis
As of now, Bitcoin was trading at $63,935, which marks a decrease of over 4% in the last 24 hours and a drop exceeding 6% for the week.
From a technical standpoint, Bitcoin finds itself in a critical area, with support levels between $60,000 and $65,000—an area that aligns with earlier breakout points and early cycle lows. A significant drop below this support could open the pathway to $55,000.
With resistance levels sitting between $68,000 and $70,000, the recent uptrend appears to be under considerable selling pressure.
