An alarming change in the forecast indicates a dangerous hurricane could hit Florida's west coast later this week, bringing damaging winds, life-threatening storm surge and torrential rain.
The developing low was designated as Tropical Storm No. 14 by the National Hurricane Center on Saturday morning, but it quickly strengthened into a hurricane by early to mid-next week, eventually reaching Florida by Wednesday. It is expected that this will happen.
The forecast from TD14 has evolved considerably over the past 24 hours, indicating an increasing likelihood of a more severe storm.
“I don't like the way this thing is developing at all, and it's going to happen pretty quickly,” says FOX Weather Hurricane Specialist Brian Norcross. “It just means that the chances of a memorable and shocking storm impacting Florida over the next few days are much higher (Saturday) than (Friday).”
What is the latest information on Tropical Storm 14?
Tropical Storm Fourteen is approximately 390 miles northeast of the Mexican state of Veracruz. Maximum wind speeds were 35 mph, moving northeast at 3 mph.
What is the forecast for Tropical Storm No. 14?
TD Fourteen is expected to gain speed early next week and turn east/northeast across the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico, reaching hurricane strength on Monday and likely to rapidly strengthen during the first half of the week, according to the NHC. are. When it reaches tropical cyclone strength, it is given the name Milton.
“The GFS (model) and the European (model) have significant storms off the coast of (Florida) on Wednesday,” Norcross said. “How important is this? Yes, it could be a hurricane. Decent chance. And these models are said to be hurricanes. Could it be a strong hurricane? Category 2, Category 3. Eliminate that. I can’t even do that.”
He added: “There's not really good news in all the computer predictions, but here we are.”
NHC shares these concerns.
“Regardless of the exact details of the strength forecast, a strong hurricane with multiple life-threatening hazards is likely to impact the west coast of the Florida peninsula next week,” the agency announced Saturday morning.
How much rain is expected?
Forecast models say the heaviest rain will fall south of Interstate 4, with widespread areas likely to receive 5 to 8 inches of rain over the next week, with some areas receiving as much as 1 foot. Rain is likely to fall.
Much of the rain will be spread out over several days, so widespread flooding is not expected, but problems can occur if thunderstorms move repeatedly over the same area.
The area expected to be affected is further south than where Hurricane Helen made landfall last week, so the hardest-hit areas of the Big Bend will receive less rainfall than places like Fort Myers, Orlando, Tampa and Miami. There will be few.
In addition to the rain, rough seas could lead to increased rip currents and the threat of erosion along the coast, a pattern that will continue into next week.
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“The bottom line is we have the potential for a significant, problematic and impactful storm heading toward Florida around Tuesday or Wednesday of next week,” Norcross said.
What will happen to the rest of hurricane season?
The Caribbean and Gulf waters maintain temperatures suitable for development, and October is typically the busiest month for landfalls in South Florida.
According to NOAA's historical data, more than 60% of landfalls in the region occur after September 10, the climatological peak of the hurricane season.
The most recent day a hurricane hit the Sunshine State was November 21, 1985, when Hurricane Kate hit the Florida Panhandle.
The National Hurricane Center continues to monitor Hurricane Kirk in the mid-Atlantic and Hurricane Leslie in the eastern Atlantic, but neither poses an immediate threat to the landmass into next week.
New disturbances are occurring and being tracked off the coast of Africa.
