Tropical Storm Helene strengthened rapidly on Wednesday and is expected to become a major hurricane as it approaches Florida, while residents are scrambling to prepare for a deadly storm surge, destructive hurricane-force winds and flooding rains.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said there was a risk of life-threatening storm surge along the entire west coast of Florida and the Big Bend.
When the storm makes landfall late Thursday, the Big Bend region is expected to experience peak water levels of up to 15 feet above land.
Current projections suggest Tampa Bay could experience flooding of 5 to 8 feet from a storm surge.
Mandatory evacuations have been issued across a swath of Florida's Gulf Panhandle, across the Big Bend and into Southwest Florida. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis issued an executive order on Tuesday declaring a state of emergency in 61 of the state's 67 counties to help agencies prepare for the approaching storm.
What is the forecast for Tropical Storm Helene?
According to an update from the NHC Wednesday morning, Helene's maximum sustained winds are expected to reach at least 70 mph with increasing gusts. Helene is moving northwest and is expected to continue this motion into Wednesday morning, then turn northward starting late Wednesday.
Helene is expected to rapidly strengthen into a major hurricane, with sustained sustained winds of at least 111 mph, as it moves through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and approaches the northeast Gulf Coast on Thursday. Its currently predicted maximum sustained winds of 120 mph would rate the storm a Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
Hurricane warnings have been issued from Anclote River to Mexico Beach, Florida, with hurricane-force winds expected late Thursday.
The NHC has urged residents in alert areas to complete their preparations by early Thursday morning.
Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the entire Florida Keys, the Dry Tortugas, the west coast of Florida from Flamingo to the Anclote River, including Tampa Bay, the east coast of Florida from west of Mexico Beach to the Walton/Bay County line, from Flamingo north to the mouth of the St. Mary River, and Lake Okeechobee.
Helene is expected to be a major hurricane, likely ranking in the top 90 percent of typical hurricanes for the region, according to the NHC.
“As a result, the impacts of storm surge, winds and rainfall are likely to extend well outside the forecast area, particularly to the east, far from the centre,” NHC forecasters said on Tuesday.
Jamie Rome, deputy director of the National Hurricane Center, said Helen is a hurricane unlike any other in terms of its magnitude and is expected to strengthen over the next 24 hours.
“Many people mistakenly use current strength — what it looks like right now on satellite imagery — as an indicator of overall risk — what it looks like now, rather than what it will be like when the storm makes landfall or enters their area,” Rome told FOX Weather.
Storm surges and flooding are major concerns
The storm's size and track could result in a life-threatening storm surge that, if it occurs at high tide, could raise water levels 10 to 15 feet above dry water level between the Ochlockonee and Chassahowitzka rivers along Florida's Big Bend, according to the NHC.
Storm surges of varying heights are expected along the entire west coast of Florida, with higher storm surge levels expected the closer to Helene's landfall.
The NHC said Helene's torrential rains could result in “significant” flash flooding and urban flooding across the Southeast, with snow accumulations of 4 to 8 inches and localized rainfall totals of about 12 inches. Major river flooding is also a risk.
Helen's impact could reach far inland
FOX Weather
Future With Hurricane Helen approaching Florida, residents are busy preparing for the storm as state and local officials begin issuing mandatory evacuation orders and declaring states of emergency.
But Florida isn't the only place Helene is expected to cause problems. As Helene moves further inland, tropical storm-force winds could cause power outages across the Southeast. On Tuesday, President Joe Biden approved federal aid for Georgia, and Georgia Governor Brian Kemp declared a state of emergency.
Helen will also bring rain to the Southeast.
“Another thing about large storms is that they can sustain their strength and carry both winds and, in this case, rain, inland,” Rome said in front of a map showing the expected impacts across the Southeast. “Look how far inland this storm is going to get. We could see this storm get quite strong in the coming days, all the way into Atlanta, upstate South Carolina and possibly even western North Carolina.”
