Trump’s Strategy on Russian-Chinese Relations

During his campaign, President Donald Trump expressed a desire to undermine the alliance between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese President Xi Jinping. This ambition raises interesting questions about whether Trump could adopt a “reverse Kissinger” strategy, aiming to foster a division similar to that of the Cold War era.

Fred Fleitz, who worked as an assistant to Trump on the National Security Council, shared his thoughts, suggesting, “I think there are multiple avenues to break this alliance.” He highlighted recent discussions between U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bescent and his Chinese counterpart, emphasizing that encouraging China to cease oil purchases from Russia and imposing tariffs might be effective tactics.

Yet, it’s important to note that Chinese officials have reportedly increased their support for Russia. In a July meeting between Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi and EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell, it was made clear that China does not seek a Russian defeat in the ongoing conflict.

The Chinese embassy did not reply to inquiries regarding what constitutes a “loss” for Russia or why Beijing prefers a Russian victory amidst its invasion of Ukraine.

Some analysts suggest that China’s fears about a Russian defeat stem from concerns that it might empower the U.S. and its allies to redirect their focus toward China.

Fleitz proposed a long-term strategy to dismantle the alliance between Putin and Xi. Rather than solely focusing on their public commitments, he advocated creating awareness that the citizens of Russia and China have historical animosities. For instance, he noted that the Chinese Ministry of Natural Resources had altered maps to include Russian cities under Chinese influence, potentially signaling ambitions to reclaim territory in the Far East.

“We need to illustrate to Putin that a brighter future exists for Russia outside of this partnership,” Fleitz said, suggesting that a reintegration with the West could yield better conditions.

The concept of “reverse Kissinger,” named after the diplomatic efforts of former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger in the 1970s to separate China from the Soviet Union, is relevant here. Trump, to some extent, attempted this strategy, advocating for diplomatic engagement with Putin and his initial criticisms of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Currently, the war’s goals for Putin remain unobstructed, with China maintaining a publicly neutral stance while showing increasing support for Russia despite Western pressures. Fleitz acknowledged that executing this strategy would be a challenging endeavor, particularly in light of the already strained communications between Biden and Putin post-invasion.

In a related June report, Russian intelligence indicated growing concerns about China’s intentions, suggesting they view China as a strategic partner against the West. However, Fleitz pointed out that such relationships can expose vulnerabilities, as China is known for its long-term strategic interests and potential espionage.

“It’s vital to remind the Russians at every opportunity that the Chinese are not their friends,” Fleitz concluded, emphasizing the need for continuous dialogue about these complexities in international relations.