Former President Donald Trump is outperforming President Biden in New Hampshire, a new poll shows, marking a 12-point change from December.
Trump narrowly beat Biden, 44% to 42%, while 4% said they would vote for independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. According to a poll by the Saint Anselm College Research Center:.
It’s pretty big Changes from last December The same survey showed Biden leading with 49%, Trump with 39% and Kennedy with 8%.
Unlike the December poll, the latest poll takes into account a new field of third-party candidates, including Libertarian Party candidate Chase Oliver (0%), Green Party candidate Jill Stein (1%) and Independent Cornel West (1%).
“Biden is leading among voters who dislike both candidates, but Democratic voters are leaning more to independents than Republican voters,” said the executive director of the New Hampshire Institute of Politics. Neil Levesque explains.
“While 89% of Republicans solidly support Trump, Biden has secured the support of only 82% of Democrats.”
Still, Biden has maintained an edge in recent elections. RealClearPolitics Count Polls in New Hampshire give him a 3 percentage point lead in head-to-head contests.
Trump, 78, is leading in the national RCP composite and in most key battleground states.
Despite having a Republican governor and legislature, a Republican has not won a presidential election in New Hampshire since 2000. New Hampshire has only four electoral votes.
But polls show Trump is facing a more competitive fight than usual as the Republican candidate for president.
One problem for Biden is his ability to ring-fence the liberal vote. Progressives were divided in this election over Israel’s war with Hamas, and hundreds of thousands wrote letters calling him “indifferent” to protest his support for U.S. allies.
“To succeed, Biden will need to solidify the support of very liberal voters, who currently support him with only 67% supporting him, and 15% are still undecided,” Levesque continued.
“Meanwhile, Trump is doing better among moderates (44% to 38%), independent voters (40% to 38%) and swing voters (39% to 21%).”
Some analysts have noted that Democrats are performing better than Biden in tight races in lower-tier districts across the country.
According to the poll, Biden had 39% favorable and 59% unfavorable ratings, while Trump had 42% favorable and 57% unfavorable ratings.
Among so-called “double haters,” Biden garnered 30% support, compared with Trump’s 13%, according to the poll.
The main reason voters are hesitant about Biden is his age, with 45% saying their age makes them “less” or “much less likely” to support him, 45% saying it makes no difference, and 9% saying it makes them “more” or “somewhat more likely.”
On the other hand, regarding Trump’s conviction, 43% said it would make them “less likely” or “much less likely” to vote for him, 35% said it would make “no difference,” and 22% said it would make them “more likely” or “somewhat more likely” to support him.
The poll was conducted June 28-29, shortly after Thursday’s debate between Trump and Biden, where consternation over the sitting president’s age reached a fever pitch.
The poll sampled 1,700 votes and had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.3 percentage points.
