According to a national poll conducted by the Pew Research Center/SSRS, the two are neck and neck in the presidential election, with former President Donald Trump leading Vice President Kamala Harris among white working-class voters.
In opinion polls, carried out The massive survey of more than 7,500 registered voters conducted Aug. 5-11 found that 45% of respondents supported or leaned toward Trump, and 46% supported or leaned toward Harris. Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr. came in third with 7%. The 1% difference between Trump and Harris is within the margin of error of plus or minus 1.4%.
For reference, a Pew Research poll found that carried out A poll taken in April found Biden in a reasonably close race with Trump before his disastrous debate defeat in late June, with Trump leading by one point (49 percent to 48 percent), but the sample did not include Kennedy.
Demographic trends in the latest polls on education also provide a strong hint at the race: Trump has an advantage among the educated demographic. Received College dropouts and those with less education are the most likely candidates, while Harris is ahead among college graduates.
Among voters who attended college but did not earn a degree, Trump leads 46 percentage points to 44 percentage points, while among those with a high school education or less, Trump leads by an even 15 percentage points. Trump’s approval rating among these voters is 53 percent to Harris’s 38 percent.
National opinion poll Pew Research
Harris: 46%
Trump: 45%
RFK Jr.: 7%
Other: 1%
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• Men: Trump 49-44%
• Women: Harris 49-42%
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• 18-29 years old: Harris 57-29%
• 30-49 years old: Harris 45-43%
• 50-64 years old: Trump 49-44%
• Over 65: Trump 51-45%
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• White: Trump 52-41%… pic.twitter.com/egLXuX2xhz— Interactive Polls (@IAPolls2022) August 14, 2024
Digging deeper, Trump is dominating white working-class voters with a college dropout or less education over Harris.
Sixty percent of voters in this demographic support Harris, compared with 33% for her. The New York Times/Siena University Poll Found Among non-college-educated white voters in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, Trump leads Harris by 14 points, narrowing from a 25-point lead he had over Biden in the polling organization’s May poll.
CNN’s Harry Enton focused on the changes between May and August. Times/Siena College conducted a poll during an appearance on Tuesday Erin Burnett takes the lead.
“Kamala Harris needs to put up numbers like that to win,” Enton said of the 14-point margin in the Rust Belt.
Why did Harris perform so well in last week’s New York Times poll in key battleground states like Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin?
Harris is doing much better than Biden among Trump’s base of working-class white voters, and if she can get them to show her numbers, she’ll win. pic.twitter.com/0N15OWeEpN
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 14, 2024
Although it is a nationwide poll, the Pew Research Center’s findings are: Times/Siena College poll of non-college educated whites in these key working-class Rust Belt states. The Pew Research Center poll gives Harris a 27-point lead nationally, which is similar to Biden’s 25-point lead in Rust Belt states in a May poll. Times/Siena vote.
Trump victory In the latest poll, 42 percent of female voters backed Kennedy, just behind Harris at 49 percent, with Kennedy Jr. following closely with 6 percent of female respondents.
Conversely, Trump leads Ms. Harris among men by 49 percentage points to her 44 percent. Six percent of men support or favor Ms. Kennedy.
When it comes to age groups, Harris has a clear advantage among younger voters, but Trump has an edge among older voters: Harris leads 57% to 29% among 18-29 year olds, but is neck and neck among 30-49 year olds, with 45% for Harris and 43% for Trump.
Trump leads Harris among voters ages 50 to 65, 49% to 44%, and he also holds a 6-point lead among voters over 65, 51% to 45%.
The Pew Research poll was conducted Aug. 5-11 among 7,569 registered voters.
