Cuban-American politicians are urging the Trump administration to apply maximum pressure on Cuba’s authoritarian government, suggesting that the regime is at a low point.
On February 2, President Trump shared his ambition to see Cuba’s leadership changed by year’s end. He communicated this shortly after threatening tariffs on nations supplying oil to Cuba. He remarked, “Venezuela is a failed nation. We haven’t received a penny from Venezuela, we haven’t taken a penny from anyone.”
In a rare press conference, Cuban President Miguel Diaz-Canel admitted that his government is struggling to maintain power due to fuel shortages. He mentioned a willingness to engage in dialogue with the Trump administration but made it clear that topics regarding Cuba’s sovereignty were non-negotiable. He described preparations for a “defense plan” against U.S. pressure. “We are not at war,” he said, “But, we are preparing in case we have to go to war status.”
Amidst these developments, Trump hinted at ongoing discussions with Cuban representatives, claiming, “I think we’re very close” to a deal. Reports indicate Alejandro Castro Espin, son of former president Raul Castro, could be involved in negotiations that might enable the regime to cling to power. Trump stated he seeks an agreement that would allow Cuba to “be free again” after more than six decades of oppressive rule.
Representative Carlos Gimenez (R-Fla.), who fled Cuba as a child, expressed optimism about imminent regime change in Havana, stating, “I’ve been here 65 years and I don’t think I’ve ever seen an administration as weak as it is now.” He urged for increased pressure on those aiding the Cuban government.
Similarly, Representative Mario Diaz-Balart (R-Florida) called on Trump to intensify measures against the regime, emphasizing that economic and diplomatic pressure is essential for change. He declared, “Zero tolerance and total pressure” is the answer to dismantling a dictatorship unwilling to yield.
Mexican oil crackdown
The Mexican government has publicly advocated for solidarity with Cuba, historically providing it significant amounts of oil. However, shipments reduced drastically following the arrest of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro on January 3, falling from roughly 20,000 barrels per day in 2025 to about 3,000 barrels per day now, a situation Trump seems intent on eliminating entirely.
President Claudia Sheinbaum has begun signaling reductions in oil exports to Cuba, framing them in a humanitarian light. Yet, recently, Mexico hinted it might halt these shipments, leaving Cuba with limited reserves, according to trade data.
Trump described his approach as not to “choke-off” Cuba, though he admitted, “it looks like I’m not going to survive.”
No one can come save them.
Experts like Sebastian A. Arcos from the Cuba Institute at Florida International University noted that there’s a dwindling chance for the regime’s survival in the medium term. He observed that without Venezuelan support, Cuba’s economy would further weaken. “If the oil runs out, the economy will grind to a halt,” he stated.
Since the 2000s, Cuba has relied on subsidies from Venezuela, a trade-off of services for oil. But many exports went to Asia rather than sustaining Cuba’s energy needs, raising concerns about the regime’s prioritization of profit over the populace’s welfare.
The White House had considered a naval blockade to stop future oil shipments to Cuba, as Florida lawmakers pressed for robust measures to dismantle the regime. “There’s no power, no food, no medicine. It’s over, it’s time for them to leave,” Gimenez stated.
There are only a few days left.
Florida Republicans agree military intervention is not necessary at this point, advocating for tightened pressure instead. “If the pressure increases, I don’t think those days will be long,” Diaz-Balart remarked.
However, should protests erupt violently, military action could be on the table as a response, according to Arcos.
Who will be in charge?
While Raul Castro stepped down as president, he and his inner circle remain influential. Michael Rubin from the American Enterprise Institute believes that with Castro’s death, his successor, Diaz-Canel, will likely be rendered obsolete.
Concerns exist about a power vacuum allowing external influences, including Russia or China, to intervene. Rubin suggests laying groundwork for a constitutional convention could empower Cubans in shaping their future.
Political dissent is virtually nonexistent in Cuba, complicating the potential transition to democracy. Arcos highlighted the regime’s suppression of dissent, asserting Cuba has more political prisoners than Venezuela, despite being significantly smaller.
The prospect of change relies on economic collapse as the regime loses legitimacy. Rubin asserts that the Trump administration might engage with CIA contacts among Cuban officials to facilitate this transition.
They will try to deceive the United States.
If a regime change occurs, reliance on the Cuban military may be necessary. Arcos emphasized the military’s financial backing and cautioned that it may resist changes threatening its standing.
While humanitarian aid is critical given the hardships faced by ordinary Cubans, Arcos warned that negotiating could be a façade intended to buy time until the political landscape shifts again.
Both Gimenez and Diaz-Balart recognize the lengthy path toward democracy in Cuba, yet remain committed to seeing it through. “It’s going to take time,” Gimenez acknowledged, drawing parallels to America’s own struggle for independence.
