Talk about groping for a trillion dollar Ukrainian deal on a one-yard line. Team Trump stupidly did it that Friday in the oval office. In doing so, they handed over the football to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
Instead of getting a simple victory, President Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance turned the meeting into a bad episode of “survivors.” My temperament burned upbeing snatched about the charges, Zelensky was asked to leave the White House.
Trump's Ukraine Reconstruction Agreement – Mainly Developed Contracts $11.5 trillion Rare Earth Minerals (REM) – left unsigned. By hotly personalizing his differences with Zelensky, Trump handed over Putin – for now, at least for now, his upset war lifeline in Ukraine.
Putin knows that Ukrainian Rem is important in this war. The same goes for China's national president Xi Jinping. Until their oval office meltdown, Trump and Vance were positioned to win the board against Russia and China.
Half of Ukrainian Rem's wealth lies in the eastern and southern regions of the country illegally occupied by Russian troops. Trump had signal That he understood this. On Wednesday he said, “We're going to try hard to do quite a bit. [Ukraine] You can get as much back as possible. ”
Trump should be more focused on working with Zelensky, especially as the pursuit of Rem in Ukraine has been transformed into a modern gold rush. Putin already sees himself as the Donbass Don.
The White House question was how best to protect it. Trump wanted postwar European peacekeeping forces that Russia has rejected.
The UK is just as happy as French. However, as British Prime Minister Kiel Starmer pointed out in a comment from the Oval Office on Thursday, they are demanding that the US military serve as a “backstop.”
Europe itself lacks sufficient resources to stop future Russian attacks and protect the wealth of Ukraine and its Rem. Only the US or NATO can provide these features well.
Trump initially seemed to understand this need. When asked about the postwar Ukrainian peacekeeping forces, Trump said “If they need help, I'll always be with the British.”
What is the difference between 24 hours? By Friday, Trump's play, which takes away Putin's role as becoming Donbas, has now been a halt of screeching.
Somehow in that era, Trump lost the point of his own plot. If he can't protect it, his Rem deal is worthless.
Zelensky understands that reality. That's why he's forcing US security assurances and is why.
But in doing so, Zelensky revealed Trump's blind spot. Trump believes that the power of his character is sufficient to stop future Russian attacks.
it's not.
The president goes back and forth. However, Russia's threat to Ukraine remains. It began in 2014 when Putin seized Donbas and parts of Crimea. It resumed in February 2022 – and it will again do so unless Russia is checked by a robust deterrent.
If Trump doesn't want to put US troops on the ground, he has other options. He can fully arm Ukraine, green light into NATO peacekeeping forces and agree to Ukraine's join NATO as a full member state protected by Article 5.
But for now, Trump doesn't want to go down either path. Instead, he is content to risk putting himself at risk of running away with what Putin can only be described as the “art of stealing.” Zelensky's demands were not only advocated for Ukraine, but also a decision to decide whether Trump or Putin would ultimately control the Remtreasure map, which was lost in Trump as Zelensky's demands spurred him.
Putin knew he was in a weak negotiation position. That is until the explosion of Trump and Vance's oval offices strengthened his hands.
That's why Putin was the early He provided his own rem deal Trump includes the exploitation of Ukraine's regions controlled by Russia. Putin's offer included the US and Russia Joint development Rem along the North Sea route and the Arctic.
But beware of the Trojan gifts. Putin and Xi “No Restrictions” Alliance As strong as ever – and Beijing is intended to have Russia and China dominate the NSR and polar regions of the Arctic. Ultimately, the US will find themselves looking outside if Trump strikes a Rem deal with Putin.
Team Trump also needs to realize that there is another Donbass in the production: xi. Beijing's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) has already invested heavily in Ukraine. Two important railway arteries designed to allow China to control trade with the European Union were set up to run through the heart of Ukraine.
Xi, like Trump and Putin, is aiming to extract Ukrainian Rem. The BRI rail line is also intended to promote that.
Thus, it is a three-way contest. Until Friday, Trump held all his victory cards. Putin's army has essentially been fighting at a halt – and Xi's army lacks a projection of force. Only the US and its NATO allies can direct the winner in Ukraine.
But despite holding the losing hand, the Kremlin is not enough to end the war in Ukraine. Putin still wants everyone in Ukraine.
Putin's negotiating position will not change until Russia suffers a serious military set-up in Ukraine. It takes an exercise punch into the mouth.
Trump's best play in ensuring that US troops are never needed in Ukraine is to keep the AFU armed.
He must strengthen Ukraine's ability to block Russian troops before they can reach the front line. This includes providing weapons with deeper strike accuracy, such as the German-made Taurus and the US ATACM.
He must also maximize Ukraine's ability to protect civilian population centres. Putin is trying to kill his path to the outcome of a favorable negotiation. And finally, Trump must remove the remaining obstacles to a deep strike. Let the AFU attack Russia's ability to wage war and fund it.
Winning is for filming. So does Rem if Trump returns to the right path.
Mark TossI write about national security and foreign policy. Colonel (ret.)Jonathan SweetHe served as the Army Intelligence Auditor for 30 years.
