Uniondale, New York – A political shift to the right in two key New York City suburbs could be an advantage for former President Donald Trump on Election Day, party officials said.
Nassau and Suffolk counties on Long Island, traditionally purple or leaning blue, went solidly red in the 2022 midterm elections, even though Democrats outnumber Republicans in both counties on state voter rolls.
And it could be a bellwether of where things are headed in similar communities across the country.
Former President Trump narrowly won Suffolk County in 2020, defeating Joe Biden by fewer than 250 votes. But in the 2022 midterm elections, Republicans won local and congressional elections in both Suffolk County and Nassau County, which borders New York.
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Supporters of former President Trump, the Republican presidential candidate, wait for the start of his campaign rally at the Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum in Uniondale, New York, on September 18, 2024. (Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images)
“I think the real catalyst was the crazy way Democrats have been running things both in Washington and in Albany,” Nassau County Mayor Bruce Blakeman, a Republican, told Fox News Digital. “When you think about cashless bail, when you think about the unsecure border, we're spending billions of dollars on people who are only here for 15 minutes, instead of on our hospitals, our infrastructure, our schools. People are fed up.”
Trump's message resonates more with suburban voters, he said.
“I think it's the Democrats who are helping us the most, and I think moderate Democrats and independents are so fed up with the policies of the Biden-Harris administration that they want to vote Republican now,” he said.
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Nassau County Mayor Bruce Blakeman speaks before former President Trump during a rally, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024, in Uniondale, New York. (Julia Bonavita/Fox News Digital)
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Laura Curran, a pro-police Democrat who opposed the state's controversial bail reform law, said the rhetoric of far-left lawmakers in Congress hurt her campaign when she lost reelection to Blakeman three years ago despite her own positions.
“It's really important that we have a conversation about who is the standard-bearer of the party,” she said. “That's why it's good to see Biden gone and Kamala Harris elected.”
Still, she said the state's unpopular governor is another weakness, after a recent Siena College poll showed Gov. Kathy Hockle's favorability rating among New York voters trailed President Trump's.
Gov. Kathy Hawkle spoke at the Midtown Community Justice Center during announcing funding for the fiscal year 2025 mental health and public safety budget. (Lev Ladin/Pacific Press/LightRocket via Getty Images)
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At a rally on Wednesday, former President Trump said former Rep. Lee Zeldin, a Suffolk County native who tried to unseat Hauchle in the last gubernatorial election, could play a role in the next administration if re-elected. The packed house erupted in cheers.
In a state where registered Democratic voters outnumber registered Republicans more than two to one, Hawkle narrowly defeated Zeldin by less than 5 percentage points.
Polls show that crime in general, and immigrant crime in particular, rank as high as voters' top concerns, along with taxes and the economy.
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In Suffolk, the former president's Justice Department played a major role in fighting the MS-13 violence epidemic, and the local police union hasn't forgotten that.
“This was a gang that had a deadly power on Long Island,” said Lou Civelo, president of the Suffolk Police Benevolent Association. “They were targeting young people and giving them the choice between joining a gang or dying. That's what we were dealing with.”
Members of the Suffolk County Police Benevolent Association attend a tailgate party ahead of former President Trump's rally, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024, in Uniondale, New York. (Julia Bonavita/Fox News Digital)
The gang used machetes as weapons and committed numerous brutal murders. In one case, gang members killed a mother and then brutally murdered a young child to prevent the child from growing up and exacting revenge, Sivero said. One of the killers then stole one of the child's toys and took it home for his girlfriend's son to play with.
“This was a problem that local law enforcement couldn't solve on their own,” Sivero said. “It needed federal help. President Trump has made it a priority.”
Earlier this year, the Suffolk PBA became the first police organization in New York state to endorse President Trump's reelection.
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Supporters of former President Trump wait outside the Nassau Coliseum in preparation for Trump's rally on Long Island on September 18, 2024. (Fatih Aktas/Anadolu via Getty Images)
Since President Trump left office, the Biden-Harris administration has reversed his Remain in Mexico policy and tarnished its own reputation by shifting Republican leaders' focus to sanctuary states and cities, busing and flying migrants from the border to cities like New York, Martha's Vineyard and Chicago.
The result was what the New York Police Department called an “immigrant crime wave” earlier this year, with newly arrived Venezuelan prison gang members, known as the Tren de Aragua, quickly garnering attention as they spearheaded a surge in robberies.
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Participants attend a rally for former President Trump on Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024, in Uniondale, New York. (Julia Bonavita/Fox News Digital)
“Every town is a border town now,” Sivero told Fox News Digital.
Trump's message at Wednesday's rally clearly resonated with voters, as he promised to crack down on immigrant crime, criticized progressive cashless bail policies and said such measures would make New Yorkers “love” their home town again.
Levittown, Hicksville and Uniondale were some of America's original suburbs, he noted.
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“These are the great towns you grew up in, loved and continued to live in,” he said to cheers.
Yet he faces an uphill battle as he vows to become the first Republican presidential candidate to win New York state in decades.
People wait outside the Nassau Coliseum before the start of a rally for former Republican presidential candidate Trump, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024, in Uniondale, New York. (Ted Shafley/The Associated Press)
A recent Siena College poll found that Trump is slightly ahead of Harris in suburban New York counties, 50% to 48%, and in upstate New York, Trump is ahead 50% to 45%, but in New York City, Harris leads 72% to 25%.
According to a new Fox News poll, Trump's suburban advantage in New York state is greater than the national average, with Harris and Minnesota Governor Tim Walz leading with 51% support, while Trump and Ohio Sen. J.D. Vance are leading with 47% support.
If Trump's support on Long Island is an indicator for similar communities in key battleground states, it could have major implications for his reelection.
“I think Long Island is a very good barometer of suburban America,” said Melissa DeRosa, a top adviser to former Gov. Andrew Cuomo.
Democratic presidential candidate Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at the Congressional Hispanic Caucus Leadership Conference at the Ronald Reagan Building, Wednesday, Sept. 18, 2024, in Washington. (AP Photo/Jose Luis Magana)
“The suburbs in general are traditionally purple,” she explained, “and I think that it can swing either way, and suburban women in particular are a big part of the electorate. If you look at Long Island, even under a good scenario for us in terms of drawing the boundaries, you've seen this erosion over the last couple of years where it's gone completely red. I think that's a real wake-up call.”
She said Trump continues to deliver messages tailored to different communities, such as a “no tip tax” in Nevada and proposing tariffs on foreign cars to the United Auto Workers union.
“People respond to leadership,” she said. “People respond to a lack of leadership. And I think the issue is that in 2020, not Trump was enough. In 2024, when poll after poll clearly shows that people feel economically worse off, not Trump is enough, when the direction of the country is this negative, when inflation is this bad, when things are in turmoil geopolitically.”
Still, she said she doesn't expect Trump to win in heavily Democratic states.
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But in the key battleground state of Pennsylvania, there are signs that voters are shifting to the right, even in the Philadelphia suburbs, said David Gelman, a Trump campaign lawyer whose family owns a restaurant in the district.
“There are Trump flags flying everywhere, but they're nowhere near there,” he told Fox News Digital. “They're putting a lot of effort into Pennsylvania because if they win Pennsylvania, they have a good chance of winning the presidency.”
