Mark Dubowitz on Trump’s Leverage Over Iran Amid Ceasefire

Mark Dubowitz, who leads the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, recently discussed President Trump’s assertive approach to Iran following a two-week ceasefire agreement. He noted that the past 15 months had perhaps weakened Trump’s administration, emphasizing that Iran’s 10-point peace proposal, featuring what he called “absurd demands,” is unlikely to be accepted. Dubowitz also reflected on the choices ahead for Iran’s new leadership.

In a separate communication, President Trump expressed gratitude to Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif and military chief Asim Munir, calling them “great people.” His post on Truth Social, dated Friday, was met with a warm response from Sharif, who expressed appreciation for Trump’s kind words on behalf of the people of Pakistan.

This exchange highlights Munir’s rising stature, as he has gained the trust of both Trump and Iran’s security services. Recently, he became the first foreign military leader to visit Iran since tensions escalated between the U.S. and Iran. His visit, it seems, was a strategic one, aimed at fostering communication as the Trump administration seeks to navigate the ongoing conflict involving Iran and its nuclear ambitions.

Retired Pakistani general Ahmed Saeed mentioned that Munir has acted as an informal mediator between Washington and Tehran for many months. This raises an interesting question: How has Munir managed to establish connections with both Trump and high-ranking Iranian officials? Saeed recounted that Munir built these relationships during his tenure as Pakistan’s military intelligence chief from 2016 to 2017.

“He has direct interactions with leadership across the board, including the Revolutionary Guards,” Saeed stated. His ties extend to multiple Iranian military sectors, dating back to meetings with former Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani, who was killed by U.S. forces in 2020.

Looking at the broader implications, J.D. Vance remarked that the power dynamics now rest with Iran, particularly after peace discussions with Pakistan hit a snag. Munir’s position as a key figure becomes even more pronounced under these circumstances.

Interestingly, although Munir has established significant international relationships, skepticism remains about his connections. Some commentators, like Bill Roggio, have urged caution, labeling Pakistan a “disloyal ally” in how it has handled U.S. interests in Afghanistan.

Trump’s commendation of Munir dates back to the India-Pakistan crisis of May 2025. His influence in that situation led to Trump being nominated for the Nobel Peace Prize—a move many analysts speculate was spurred by Munir.

There seems to be consistent communication between Trump and Munir, with the latter still receiving recognition from Trump, who labeled him as “an extraordinary person” and “my favorite marshal.” Pakistani analysts have observed that Trump is inclined toward strong leadership, which Munir embodies.

Munir’s military background and education certainly inform his approach. He has earned multiple honors and holds advanced degrees related to national defense and security. As a Hafiz-e-Quran, he has memorized the Quran, presenting himself as a figure of discipline and order.

However, his ascent to power has drawn criticism, with some asserting that it signals a shift where military authority overshadows civilian governance in Pakistan. This has become particularly pronounced since Munir took office in 2022, impacting the country’s political landscape.

Overall, as negotiations proceed, much hinges on Munir’s established trust on both sides, suggesting he will remain a pivotal player. Saeed emphasized that once someone like Munir sets their course, they tend to persevere relentlessly.