A new poll shows former President Trump leading President Biden by 3 percentage points in Virginia, where Republicans are hoping to win after Biden beat Trump by 10 points in 2020. Virginia has always voted Democratic in presidential elections since President Barack Obama first ran in 2008.
According to a new Virginia Commonwealth University/Wilder poll reported by The Washington Post, Biden’s approval rating has fallen to 36% from 42% in the previous VCU/Wilder poll released in January.
Trump remained unchanged at 39%, with the poll suggesting support for Biden has declined rather than a significant increase in Trump’s approval rating.
Trump and Youngkin meet for first time as Republicans aim to win Virginia in November
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin and former President Trump met ahead of the 2024 election. (Trump camp)
Still, the poll bodes well for the Trump campaign and is a further cause for concern for the Biden campaign, which has been battling calls from within its own party for the president to drop out of the race following Trump’s disastrous performance in the June 27 debate. The VCU-Wilder poll was conducted between June 24 and July 3, meaning some of the polling took place after that debate.
The poll found Biden’s approval rating at 36% and his disapproval rating at 58%. Respondents ranked the “rising cost of living” as the biggest issue in the campaign, followed by women’s reproductive rights and immigration.
The 46th president continues to lose support in the black community, with 46% saying they will vote for Biden, down from 67% in the last VCU-Wilder poll, while 13.7% said they will vote for Trump.
The VCU-Wilder poll was based on telephone interviews with 809 Virginia adults ages 18 and older, about a third of which were conducted by landline and the rest by cell phone, with a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points, according to The Washington Post.
Virginia, home to many people who work in neighboring Washington, D.C., is not considered a battleground state in the 2024 election, but recent polls suggest the race could be closer than expected.
A Fox News poll released in June showed Trump and Biden neck and neck in the Old Dominion State, with 48% support each, but a New York Times/Siena College poll conducted in Virginia from July 9-12 showed Biden leading Trump by 3 percentage points, 48-45, among likely voters.
FOX News Poll: Biden, Trump in close race in Virginia
President Biden (right) and former President Trump faced off in a key second debate in late June ahead of the 2024 presidential election. (Justin Sullivan/Getty Images)
Virginia Governor Glenn Youngkin, a Republican, has previously said Virginia is a “swing state” that could give Trump a victory in November.
“I think Virginia is going to be a hot issue. Remember, Joe Biden won Virginia by 10 points in 2020. I won the following year by 2 points. What we’ve demonstrated is that common sense conservative policies work, and Virginians appreciate that,” Youngkin said in an interview with radio host and Fox News contributor Guy Benson in May.
The governor repeated similar comments in a June interview with Fox News Digital.
Biden won the state by 10 percentage points over Trump in 2020. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton ran against Trump in the 2016 election, but Democrats also won Virginia, with Clinton winning 49.8% of the vote to Trump’s 44.4%.
Youngkin won the governor’s office in 2021 with the backing of President Trump.
But according to the VCU-Wilder poll, Virginians’ approval rating of Youngkin has fallen to 50% from 54% in January, while their disapproval rating has risen to 39% from 36%.
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Former President Trump will arrive at Trump Tower on May 30, 2024. (Felipe Ramares for Fox News Digital)
Meanwhile, Virginians support incumbent Democratic Senator Tim Kaine over Republican candidate Hun Kao, 49% to 38%, respectively.
The poll also found that 53% of Virginia voters said they were less likely to vote for Trump because of his conviction in New York state on 34 counts of first-degree falsifying business records.
Another 31% said they were more likely to vote for Trump after he was convicted. Among independents, 45% said a conviction made them less likely to support Trump, while 25% said it made them more likely.
Fox News’ Emma Colton, Paul Steinhauser and Matthew Reidy contributed to this report.
