President-elect Trump is heading into a battle over the debt ceiling with conservative lawmakers who are demanding deep cuts in federal spending, which will make it significantly harder for him to pass his agenda next year. .
Thirty-eight House Republicans sent a warning to Trump last week by rejecting his request to extend the nation's borrowing authority for two years, raising questions about his influence with conservative Republicans.
Conservatives are now arguing that President Trump will have to agree to deep spending cuts if he wants support for raising the debt ceiling in 2025.
“About 33 percent is in overdraw. Bringing in about $4.8 trillion. [in revenue] and spend $6.8 trillion [per year]So we need to cut about $2 trillion worth of spending,” said Sen. Rand Paul (R-Ky.).
Paul praised the defeat of President Trump's plan to raise the debt ceiling as part of a stopgap measure for government funding. He said this shows fiscal hawks will have influence over the White House next year.
He said there is a bloc of conservatives in both chambers who advocate matching the debt ceiling increase with deep spending cuts.
“That discussion will continue, and I'm going to do everything I can to make sure the debt ceiling is important.”
Paul said the defeat of President Trump's proposal to raise the debt ceiling without cutting spending is “a good day for conservatives.”
Speaker Mike Johnson (R-Louisiana) also said last week that the House Republican Conference would raise the debt ceiling in the first of two budget adjustments Republicans are planning for 2025 in exchange for $2.5 trillion in cuts. They announced a proposal to agree to an increase of $1.5 trillion. In compulsory expenditures.
But this plan leaves little room for error. Republicans will control the House by a razor-thin margin of one to three seats, depending on vacancies.
Only one or two Republicans can kill a budget reconciliation proposal that includes language to raise the debt ceiling if conservatives don't think the spending cuts are enough or if moderates think they go too far. Maybe.
Republican senators have voiced skepticism about Johnson's ability to bring together a bill to raise the debt ceiling through the budget reconciliation process and regular orders.
“If he can't keep this going, where are they going to go?” asked one Republican senator, who requested anonymity.
Another Republican senator, who also requested anonymity, warned that passing budget reconciliation next year will be “very complicated.”
“Next year is going to be even tougher than this year, and the Democrats aren't going to help. They're going to actively sabotage it,” the senator said, adding that Prime Minister Boris Johnson won't close the government before Christmas. He said it was difficult to pass a stopgap funding measure to avoid it.
Republicans will hold a more comfortable 53-seat majority in the Senate next year.
President Trump is already trying to get recalcitrant House conservatives back on track by threatening to support primary challenges to lawmakers who opposed raising the debt ceiling before taking office.
Last week, he focused on Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas), who is leading the House conservative opposition in pushing to raise the debt ceiling without major spending cuts.
“Hopefully some capable challenger is preparing to take a shot at the Texas primary. He won't stand a chance!” Trump posted on social media.
The federal government is expected to reach the debt ceiling on January 1, but Treasury officials could use an “extraordinary measure” to push the deadline for Congress to act until the summer.
Brian Darling, a Republican strategist and former Senate aide, said Trump needs to give conservatives the spending cuts they want and pressure Republican moderates to go along with those reforms.
But that will also be a challenge, given Congress' weak track record of cutting spending over the past 25 years.
“Now that the debt limit as part of the CR has failed, clearly [“Department of Government of Efficiency” (DOGE)] “We need a combination of debt reduction and a debt ceiling increase to get it through Congress with conservative support,” Darling said.
He added: “If DOGE is more than just a centerpiece for conservatives, its recommendations should be incorporated into any debt limitation agreement.”
President Trump has named allies Elon Musk and Vivek Ramaswamy to lead DOGE.
In the summer of 2011, House conservatives forced then-President Obama and Congressional leaders to agree to more than $900 billion in spending cuts over the next decade to offset a $900 billion debt ceiling hike.
The reforms were short-lived, however, as Congress agreed to increase spending caps in 2013 and in subsequent years.
“Members of the moderate faction, [Republican] “The caucus is going to have to respond, they're going to have to respond to spending reform, they're going to have to cut unnecessary programs, or we're never going to get a debt ceiling increase,” Darling said. .
Unless Republicans in the House and Senate come together on raising the debt ceiling and cutting spending, Mr. Trump will have to negotiate with Democrats who demand generous increases in social spending in exchange for raising the debt ceiling.
In February 2018, President Trump terminated an agreement with Democrats, then in the minority in the House and Senate, that would have increased defense and non-defense spending by about $300 billion in exchange for extending the debt ceiling by more than a year.
And in July 2019, President Trump agreed to increase the discretionary spending limit by an additional $320 billion in exchange for Democrats agreeing to extend the debt ceiling for two more years after the 2020 election. Democrats had more influence in 2019 because they controlled the House.
President Trump has so far indicated he intends to rely entirely on Republican votes to pass his agenda under the budget reconciliation process, which would allow him to avoid a Senate Democratic filibuster.
He urged Congress to eliminate the debt ceiling completely, avoiding having to negotiate another extension of federal borrowing authority next year, by agreeing to spending increases demanded by Democrats or deep cuts demanded by conservatives. I asked for it.
He said in an interview with NBC News that eliminating the debt ceiling is “the smartest thing to do.” [Congress] You can do it. ”
“I fully support it,” he said.
