newest nation vote Former President Donald Trump overcame a 5.4-point lead over incumbent Vice President Kamala Harris in less than three weeks, according to an ActiVote poll.
The poll of 1,000 likely voters currently shows Trump leading Harris by 1.2 percentage points, 50.6% to 49.4%.
In fact, Harris held a steady lead in this poll until August 7, but this is the first time that Trump has held the lead, except for a brief moment in late September. Above all, this is not an outlier in this follow-up study. In recent weeks, Mr. Trump's approval ratings have been slowly increasing, while Mr. Kamala's has been steadily declining.
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Trump leads among rural and suburban voters, while Harris leads among urban voters. Harris leads among younger voters (18-49), while Trump leads among older voters (50 and older). Harris leads among women, but Trump leads among men. Both parties hold about 80% of party-affiliated or presumed party-affiliated members (20 states), but Harris has a narrow lead among independents. While Trump leads among white voters, Harris won 73% of the black vote and a majority of Latino voters (59%). There are small differences between income and education categories, with Harris holding a slight lead among low-income voters and college-educated voters. Mr. Trump leads among people with the highest incomes and those with some college degree.
Additionally, Trump received 27% of the black vote (compared to 73% for Harris) and 41% of the Hispanic vote (compared to 59% for Harris). For Republicans, these numbers should be closer to 10 percent and 25 percent, respectively.
The ActiVote tracking survey will be conducted over a five-day period. These results are from October 3rd to 8th and have a margin of error of 3.1%.
This poll tracks the users with the most. recent trends National opinion polls show that the vote share has narrowed to an average of about 1.3 points (in Kamala's favor) over the past seven polls. This average is not included in this ActiVote poll.
Most usefully, you can monitor trends within the same poll. Trends are more important than results, and trends are all going Trump's way.
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