Manhattan Supreme Court Judge Juan Marchan will have broad discretion to choose from six penalties when former President Donald Trump is sentenced next month, including one that could hinder the Republican front-runner’s campaign.
The first problem for the presumptive Republican nominee, who was convicted this week by a Manhattan jury of falsifying business records, is timing.
Marchan’s July 11 sentencing hearing is four days before the Republican National Convention, meaning the defendants could potentially force the former president to miss the event.
The ruling could also upend the schedule for the 2024 presidential debates if Trump’s ruling prevents him from participating in the debates.
The second showdown will be hosted by ABC and is scheduled for Sept. 10, with a good performance widely seen as crucial by the Trump campaign.
While Judge Marchan cannot disqualify Trump from running, the judge whom Trump branded “the devil” on Friday can issue a range of rulings that could upend the election.
prison
Experts say the most extreme option is the least likely.
“Trump’s maximum prison sentence will be one to three years. If he gets more than a year, which is unlikely, he would serve his time in an upstate prison. If he gets less than a year, he would likely serve his time in Rikers Island,” said Jason Goldman, a New York City criminal defense lawyer.
“No one else convicted of this particular crime has served even a day in prison,” he added.
The city has already made contingency plans for the possibility of incarcerating Trump, and Mayor Adams said the city jail on Rikers Island is “prepared.”
Imprisonment will not prevent Trump from continuing his election campaign.
In 1920, socialist Eugene V. Debs ran for president in his final election from prison, where he was serving time for Espionage Act violations, and won nearly one million votes.
House Arrest
While as unlikely as prison, some see house arrest as potentially more sinister.
Confining Trump to a three-story Fifth Avenue apartment would effectively keep him off the campaign trail without the spectacle and expense of prison.
“It is virtually unprecedented for a 77-year-old first-time offender – and a former president – to receive prison, home detention or even probation for the most minor non-violent felony offense with a strong appeal and no history of violence or drug or alcohol abuse,” said Ida Leisenring, a criminal lawyer at Birkett Epstein.
“While home detention is not a state sentence, a judge could make it a condition of probation, which would allow President Trump to leave his home only for medical, religious, legal purposes, and any other purposes the judge allows,” she said. Such a sentence … would raise more than just eyebrows.”
Probation
Probation is “much more likely” than prison or house arrest, but can be confusing, legal sources told The Post.
Under normal New York state rules, Trump would need to get permission from his probation officer any time he leaves the state, which could complicate his plans to speak in battleground states such as Pennsylvania, Georgia and Michigan.
“The most immediate challenge for the president is the probation officer’s standard rules: convicted criminals normally must get approval for any out-of-state travel, a rather daunting prospect for a presidential candidate. Will his probation officer really deliberate whether Trump can go to Chicago but not Las Vegas?” George Washington University law professor Jonathan Turley told The Post.
In reality, Marchand has broad powers to set the terms of probation and could grant leniency to Trump.
Conditional release
In this case, Trump would be released but would be subject to certain court-ordered conditions, explained Martin Horn, professor emeritus at the John Jay College of Criminal Justice.
“He may be required to pay the fine by a certain date and if he meets those conditions his case will be closed,” Horne said.
“It all depends on what conditions are imposed. If travel restrictions are imposed, a judge could order him to remain in his jurisdiction, which would be highly unusual,” Horn added.
Before he is sentenced, Trump must meet with his probation officer, who will prepare a pre-sentence report that the judge could theoretically take into account in sentencing.
fine
Under New York state law, the maximum fine for a Class E felony is $5,000, and experts agree that Judge Marchan is likely to impose that amount.
The judge could also compound the pain by ordering consecutive fines for each of the 34 felony counts, bringing the total penalty to $170,000.
But his lawyers believe Marchan will opt to have the fines served concurrently.
“It’s unheard of to impose consecutive fines in a case like this, but everything is so unprecedented in a case like this that no one knows what’s going to happen,” said white-collar crimes lawyer Jonathan Rosenberg.
Community Service
Marchant could also require the former president to perform community service, which might force Trump into degrading servitude but would not otherwise affect the presidential election.
“He may also receive community service, such as picking up trash on the side of the road, as part of his probation,” criminal defense lawyer Jeffrey Lichtman told The Washington Post.
Trump may serve this sentence at a food bank or community garden.
“I don’t know of any case where someone in their late 70s with no criminal history would be convicted of the least serious felony and go to prison. Probation in New York City is simply a waste of money. Some kind of community service would be the most appropriate punishment,” criminal lawyer Arthur Aidala told The Post.
Future outlook
- June 2024: The U.S. Supreme Court is expected to rule on whether President Trump should be immune from prosecution in a federal lawsuit that alleges he tried to overturn the 2020 presidential election.
- June 13: The deadline for Trump’s lawyers to challenge the verdict in the “hush money” case and submit a sentencing recommendation to Manhattan Supreme Court Judge Juan Marchan.
- June 27: The first presidential debate. Also the deadline for Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg to submit his sentencing recommendation.
- July 11: Trump receives sentence from Marchan in the hush money lawsuit. If Trump is sentenced to prison, he will begin serving it immediately unless an appeals court agrees to stay the sentence pending appeal.
- July 15-18: Republican National Convention in Milwaukee
- Aug. 10: Deadline for Trump to file a notice of appeal.
- September 10th: Second debate.
- November 5: Presidential election
