Voters in the Peach State are making up their minds, and a new poll suggests they may be coming back to Donald Trump, who will win the state's 16 electoral votes, but a larger than average number of Black voters are still undecided.
Republicans won the state in 2016 but narrowly lost it in 2020.
A poll released Wednesday morning by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and conducted by the University of Georgia's School of Public and International Affairs found the former president leading Kamala Harris 47% to 44%, with 7% of respondents undecided.
The lead is within the margin of error of +/- 3.1 percentage points, and if it holds up, the spectacle of Trump trying to “hunt” votes after his 2020 defeat will likely not be repeated this November.
Getty Images
While Georgia polls (and polls everywhere else) have shown some fluctuations during this election cycle, the AJC survey may be more significant given that voters' minds are more or less made up: Fewer than 3% of voters who support one candidate also think they're likely to choose another, according to the data.
Harris improved the Democrats' standing in the last AJC poll: In June, when he was still the candidate, Trump led Biden 51% to 46%, and in a Biden-Harris poll test, Trump led by the same percentage.
Part of the vice president's problem is that he has yet to live up to expectations among key subgroups.
She has just 86% approval within her party and 77% support among black voters, a group she has been aggressive in reaching out to, hosting a rally in Atlanta in July featuring rapper Megan Thee Stallion, who performed an X-rated rap, and claiming that Harris is “shifting the momentum” in the race.
Notably, 12% of black voters are undecided, suggesting that Trump's attempts to appeal to black voters as the race enters its final stages are working.
Following his highly publicized reconciliation with Republican Governor Brian Kemp, Trump appears to be consolidating his support, with more than 90% of Republican voters backing him and overwhelming support from most white voters and older voters.
But there is an upside for Harris: There is a perception, even among some Trump supporters, that she will win.
A majority of poll respondents (48%) expect a Democratic victory, including 14% of Republicans. Eight percent of Democrats think Trump will win.
The RealClearPolitics average has Trump leading by 0.2 percentage points, making it a much closer race, but that metric does not include this latest AJC poll.
